Strategic voting and effective representation thresholds: Evidence from three Spanish general elections

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Segnalazione bibliografica. European Journal of Political Research, 20/07/2011 Autore: Joaquìn Artés Abstract The extent of strategic voting in the Spanish general elections of 2000, 2004 and 2008 is estimated using a new measure of strategic incentives suitable for proportional representation systems that avoids some of the problems associated with lagged variables. Strategic behaviour increased from 12 to 33 per cent of the electoral base of the United Left Party, the major victim of strategic defection. This estimate is a conservative one as elite mobilisation is controlled for in the constituencies, which is unusual in the literature on strategic voting that uses regression-based methods. Full...

Segnalazione bibliografica. European Journal of Political Research (May 2011), 50: 365–394 Autori: Mark Andreas Kayser, Christopher Wlezien Abstract Numerous studies have demonstrated a weakening identification of voters with political parties in Western Europe over the last three decades. It is argued here that the growing proportion of voters with weak or no party affinities has strong implications for economic voting. (mgtrailer.com) When the proportion of voters with partisan affinities is low, the effect of economic performance on election outcomes is strong; when partisans proliferate, economic conditions matter less. Employing Eurobarometer data for eight European countries from 1976 to 1992, this inverse association between...

Segnalazione bibliografica. West European Politics (March 2011), Vol. 34, N. 2, pp. 362-383 Autore: Ross Campbell Abstract: One of the defining features of post-reunified East German political culture has been an enduring affinity for socialism. Although firmly opposed to the pre-1989 one-party state, a sizeable majority of East Germans nevertheless continue to value socialism. Whilst much scholarly research has investigated the strength and depth of socialist values, as well as their sources, comparatively little is known about their consequences, about if and how socialist values matter. This article seeks to redress this by examining linkages between socialist values and political participation, asking whether...

Segnalazione bibliografica. West European Politics (March 2011), Vol. 34, N. 2, pp. 256-281 Autore: Ruben Ruiz-Rufino Abstract This article proposes a new way to measure proportionality using aggregated threshold functions. Electoral systems can be summarised by a single value that shows the necessary share of the total vote to win either one seat or half of the seats in parliament. The article calculates aggregate threshold values for 142 different electoral systems that were used in 525 democratic elections between 1946 and 2000. These results are also contrasted with the most commonly used indices of proportionality and turn out to be both substantively and empirically richer....

L. De Sio Competizione e spazio politico. Le elezioni si vincono davvero al centro? Bologna, Il Mulino, 2011 ISBN 978-88-15-14937-4 l modello prevalente per spiegare i comportamenti degli elettori e le scelte dei partiti si basa sul cosiddetto "teorema dell'elettore mediano", secondo cui i partiti, per vincere le elezioni, devono spostarsi progressivamente verso il centro, fino a diventare indistinguibili l'uno dall'altro. Ma questo modello non funziona. Se funzionasse, dovrebbe vincere sempre chi si trova al centro dello spazio politico, mentre sappiamo che possono avere successo candidati fortemente sfavoriti dalla loro "collocazione spaziale", ovvero lontani dal punto mediano. Determinante a questo proposito è il...