C’era una volta la doppia scheda. Voto differenziato e rendimento di coalizione nelle elezioni politiche del 2001

Lorenzo De Sio

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Lorenzo De Sio è professore ordinario di Scienza Politica presso la LUISS Guido Carli, e direttore del CISE - Centro Italiano di Studi Elettorali. Già Jean Monnet Fellow presso lo European University Institute, Visiting Research Fellow presso la University of California, Irvine, e Campbell National Fellow presso la Stanford University, è membro di ITANES (Italian National Election Studies), ha partecipato a vari progetti di ricerca internazionali, tra cui “The True European Voter”(ESF-COST Action IS0806), the “EU Profiler” (2009) e EUandI (2014), e di recente ha dato vita al progetto ICCP (Issue Competition Comparative Project). I suoi interessi di ricerca attuali vertono sull'analisi quantitativa dei comportamenti di voto e delle strategie di partito in prospettiva comparata, con particolare attenzione al ruolo delle issues. Tra le sue pubblicazioni, accanto a vari volumi in italiano e in inglese, ci sono articoli apparsi su American Political Science Review, Comparative Political Studies, Electoral Studies, Party Politics, West European Politics, South European Society and Politics, oltre che su numerose riviste scientifiche italiane. Clicca qui per accedere al profilo su IRIS.

In the three Italian political elections held with the 75%-plurality, mixed-member electoral system, a systematic difference can be observed in vote shares obtained by the two major party coalitions in the plurality versus proportional vote. The article analyses the sources of these differences in the 2001 political elections. Based on precinct data for the whole country, separate analyses are carried out - using the Goodman model - in order to build "turnover tables" between the two arenas for each district of the country. Differentiated behaviours are thus quantified and commented at the national level. An explanatory analysis is then presented, in order to ascertain significant relations between such behaviours and district-level variables such as geographical area, urban setting, number of candidates contesting the district and party affiliation of coalition candidates. The overall result is that differentiated behaviours are dictated both by evaluation of the national competition setting and historical legacy regarding the perception and evaluation of the political space.

CHIARAMONTE, A., D’ALIMONTE, R. D. R., & SIO, L. D. (2006). A Razor-thin Victory. In J. Frosini & G. Pasquino (Eds.), For a Fistful of Votes. The 2006 Italian Elections (pp. 23–44). Bologna: CLUEB.

The close outcome of the Italian general elections of 2006 highlights the crucial role of floating voters, switching from one coalition to its opponent. Using survey data, the paper studies the relation between the degree of political interest and knowledge of individual voters and their propensity to switch between competing coalitions in subsequent elections. Two rival hypotheses are proposed. The first, dubbed the "electoral market", states that most vote change happens among the most interested and informed. On the contrary, the rival hypothesis of the "electoral bazaar" envisages a scenario where floating voters are mostly among the least politically involved. The results of the analysis show a marked difference between patterns in the First and the Second Republic.

De Sio, L. (2006). Elettori “convertiti”, elettori “traghettati.” In Itanes (Ed.), Dov’è la vittoria? Il voto del 2006 raccontato dagli italiani (pp. 61–76). Bologna: Il Mulino.