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Patronage and Elections in U.S. States
Segnalazione bibliografica.
American Political Science Review 01 August 2011 105: 567-585
Autori: Olle Folke; Shigeo Hirano; James M. Snyder Jr
Abstract
Does control of patronage jobs significantly increase a political party's chances of winning elections in U.S. states? We employ a differences-in-differences design, exploiting the considerable variation in the dates that different states adopted civil service reforms. Our evidence suggests that political parties in U.S. states were able to use state-level patronage to increase the probability of maintaining control of state legislatures and statewide elective offices. We also find that an “entrenched” party, in power for a longer time, can use patronage more effectively. We...
A Razor-thin Victory
CHIARAMONTE, A., D’ALIMONTE, R. D. R., & SIO, L. D. (2006). A Razor-thin Victory. In J. Frosini & G. Pasquino (Eds.), For a Fistful of Votes. The 2006 Italian Elections (pp. 23–44). Bologna: CLUEB.
“Something Olde, Something New, Something Borrowed, Something Blue…”. On the twenty-eight separate European elections of 2014
De Sio, Lorenzo, Emanuele, Vincenzo, & Maggini, Nicola. (2014 21). “Something Olde, Something New, Something Borrowed, Something Blue…”. On the twenty-eight separate European elections of 2014. Retrieved from http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/eurocrisis...
The Italian space of electoral competition in pandemic times
To cite the article:
Maggini, N. and Vezzoni, C. (2023). The Italian space of electoral competition in pandemic times. Italian Political Science, Volume 17, Issue 1, 34–54.
The article is open access and can be accessed here.
Abstract
The polls on the voting intentions of Italians during the COVID-19 pandemic revealed substantial stability of electoral orientations in the first phase of the pandemic, while they detected a certain fluidity after the birth of the Draghi government, specifically with...
The Separation Plot: A New Visual Method for Evaluating the Fit of Binary Models
Segnalazione bibliografica.
Autori: Brian Greenhill; Michael D. Ward; Audrey Sacks
American Journal of Political Science, Volume 55, Number 4, 1 October 2011 , pp. 991-1002(12)
Abstract
We present a visual method for assessing the predictive power of models with binary outcomes. This technique allows the analyst to evaluate model fit based upon the models’ ability to consistently match high-probability predictions to actual occurrences of the event of interest, and low-probability predictions to nonoccurrences of the event of interest. (https://www.speedclean.com/) Unlike existing methods for assessing predictive power...