Pubblicazioni scientifiche

Pubblicazioni scientifiche

Pubblicazioni scientifiche

Con questo articolo inauguriamo una nuova rubrica del sito web CISE, ovvero le "Interviste CISE". Si tratta di una rubrica volta a divulgare quella parte dell'attività di ricerca dei membri del CISE che, avendo meno attinenza con la quotidianità della politica italiana, è spesso poco visibile sul nostro sito. Si tratta invece di un'attività fondamentale, che produce pubblicazioni su riviste scientifiche italiane e internazionali, e che orienta l'attività e gli interessi di ricerca del CISE nel lungo termine. Oltretutto, divulgare quest'attività a un pubblico vasto e non specializzato è sempre più un obbligo fondamentale per il ricercatore sociale. Tuttavia, un...

In 2011 Italian local elections we observed high electoral mobility: in Milan, for example, the center-left gained his first-time victory in the Berlusconi era, while in Naples there was a significant split voting in the first round and a huge turnaround between the first and the second ballot. A general research question emerged: are the shifts in the results understandable trough a left-right axis (political nature hypothesis of these elections) or were there cross-cutting mechanisms (local nature hypothesis of the elections with a strong role of personal aspects)? To answer the question we analyze the voting ecological estimates in the three biggest cities involved in 2011 elections: Milan, Naples and Turin. For every matrix we generated the estimates both applying the traditional Goodman model (for the whole city and splitting by district) and the hierarchical multinomial-dirichlet model developed by Rosen, Jiang, King and Taner. The most important result of our study is the strong political polarization of the vote in the two northern cities and a great importance of the local factors in Naples, where only a dominant role of the candidates can make sense of the detected shifts in voting behaviour.

The 2012 municipal election in Palermo produced an unexpected outcome. In the Sicilian city - for a long time a conservative stronghold - the center-right candidate, Massimo Costa did not succeed to reach the second ballot and the election was won by the former Major Leoluca Orlando, supported by a radical left coalition. Orlando prevailed with a sensational 72% of the vote share against the winner of the center-left primary elections, Fabrizio Ferrandelli. What happened in the 2012 Palermo municipal election? Does the Sicilian capital moved suddenly toward the left? Which factors fostered this sharp and unpredictable electoral change that altered the long-time-established political landscape of the City? To answer these questions, the article analyzes the results of the 2012 municipal election in Palermo through an electoral geography approach and the use of a quantitative methodology with ecological data. In particular, the article makes use of both the territorial study of turnout and election results and the voting ecological estimates generated with the traditional Goodman model. The empirical analysis shows that this election was strongly influenced by factors linked to the local context more than by authentically political ones. In other words, Palermo did not move toward the left. Moreover, the internal electoral segmentation of the City between central and peripheral neighborhoods persisted as the main determinant of the vote choice.

Nicola Maggini,  Young People’s Voting Behaviour in Europe. A Comparative Perspective, Palgrave Macmillan, 2016. Nicola Maggini, interviewed by Gianmarco Botti (English translation by Elisabetta Mannoni) What is your book about and why is it innovative? The book is about young people’s voting behavior in six European countries - namely Italy, France, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom - in a long-time perspective, from 1981 to the first years of the 21st century. The comparative approach is thus both a synchronic as well as a diachronic one. To be more precise, the book analyzes the determinants of young people’s voting behavior in...

-. (1997). Maggioritario per caso. Le elezioni politiche del 1996.