Pubblicazioni scientifiche

Pubblicazioni scientifiche

Pubblicazioni scientifiche

Goodbye Zona Rossa Il successo del centrodestra nelle comunali 2018 a cura di Aldo Paparo A pochi giorni dall’insediamento del Governo Conte, le elezioni comunali del giugno 2018 chiamavano nuovamente alle urne, a tre mesi dalle politiche del 4 marzo, quasi 7 milioni di italiani per rinnovare gli organi di governo locale in 760 comuni. Le comunali del 2018, quindi, rappresentano un irripetibile occasione per la comunità scientifica di trarre indicazioni circa come gli elettori hanno reagito ai quasi 100 giorni di crisi di governo, agli eventi che si sono susseguiti, e quindi comprendere lo stato dei rapporti di forza fra i...

Lorenzo De Sio, Mark N. Franklin, Till Weber, The risks and opportunities of Europe: How issue yield explains (non-)reactions to the financial crisis, Electoral Studies, Volume 44, December 2016, Pages 483-491, ISSN 0261-379 Lorenzo De Sio, interviewed by Andrea Maccagno (English translation by Elisabetta Mannoni) This paper analyzes how parties in different European countries employed (or decided not to employ) such a controversial topic as European integration in their electoral strategies. How did this article come about and which was the research question behind it? The paper is the application of a model I have been working at during the last few years. It’s...

In 2011 Italian local elections we observed high electoral mobility: in Milan, for example, the center-left gained his first-time victory in the Berlusconi era, while in Naples there was a significant split voting in the first round and a huge turnaround between the first and the second ballot. A general research question emerged: are the shifts in the results understandable trough a left-right axis (political nature hypothesis of these elections) or were there cross-cutting mechanisms (local nature hypothesis of the elections with a strong role of personal aspects)? To answer the question we analyze the voting ecological estimates in the three biggest cities involved in 2011 elections: Milan, Naples and Turin. For every matrix we generated the estimates both applying the traditional Goodman model (for the whole city and splitting by district) and the hierarchical multinomial-dirichlet model developed by Rosen, Jiang, King and Taner. The most important result of our study is the strong political polarization of the vote in the two northern cities and a great importance of the local factors in Naples, where only a dominant role of the candidates can make sense of the detected shifts in voting behaviour.

Chiaramonte, A. and Emanuele, V. (2015), 'Party System Volatility, Regeneration and De-Institutionalization in Western Europe (1945-2015)', Party Politics, Online First, DOI:10.1177/1354068815601330. Vincenzo Emanuele, interviewed by Gianmarco Botti (English translation by Elisabetta Mannoni) Vincenzo Emanuele, what is your paper about? Why is it innovative? This article, published on Party Politics in 2015, was written together with Alessandro Chiaramonte, professor at the University of Florence; and it mainly deals with the topic of institutionalization of party systems, which has a very long history, but has not been so much debated so far, for Western European countries. By institutionalization of party systems we mean stability and...

Dall'Europa alla Sicilia Elezioni e opinione pubblica nel 2017 a cura di Vincenzo Emanuele e Aldo Paparo Da metà marzo a metà ottobre del 2017, Paesi Bassi, Francia, Regno Unito, Germania e Austria hanno tenuto le loro elezioni. Ciò ha fornito un'opportunità eccezionale per mappare l’opinione pubblica in questi paesi nel contesto particolarmente turbolento, che il referendum sulla Brexit e l'elezione di Donald Trump esemplificano. Per sfruttare questa opportunità, il CISE ha lanciato un innovativo progetto di ricerca comparato per valutare empiricamente, prima delle elezioni, le preferenze dei diversi elettorati; individuare le strutture delle opportunità dei partiti politici; e interpretare i risultati...