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Despite primary elections in Italy continue to be asymmetric – i.e. carried out only by the center-left coalition – their ability to involve the electorate and their growing media impact make it a powerful democratic tool. In this article we study the 2012 Italian primary elections, held by the center-left coalition in order to select the prime ministerial candidate for the 2013 general elections. In particular, we will shed light on three dimensions: turnout, electoral results and competitiveness. We will also take into account the role played by the new candidate selection rule – the two-round system – which will allow us to collect a lot of information about the voting behavior of the selectorate. What has been the turnout level in the 2012 Italian primary elections? Which similarities and differences can be found in the patterns of participation between the first and the second round? Which factors may explain the territorial differences in turnout levels? What have been the territorial patterns of voting behavior for the main candidates? The 2012 primary elections have been more or less competitive with respect to the previous Italian national primaries? We will try to address these questions through the use of a mainly quantitative methodology with aggregate data.

The economic crisis, the fall of the Berlusconi government and the birth of the technocratic government led by Mario Monti have produced several changes in the Italian political system. Certainly, one of the most important innovations in the context of Italian politics has been the emergence of the Five Star Movement. Such a new party has achieved spectacular overnight success in several elections at sub-national level, and now it is the most voted party in the 2013 national elections. The Five Star Movement combines antiestablishment rhetoric with demands for political reform. The article analyses the electoral growth of the Five Star Movement using both aggregate data and individual data from “Osservatorio Politico CISE” (i.e. cross-section and panel surveys conducted from November 2011 to March 2013). In particular, the author investigates whether the profile of the supporters of the Five Star Movement has changed over time, both from a political and a social standpoint. Finally, the author analyses what factors influence the electoral choice for the Five Star Movement, also from a longitudinal perspective.

Il modello prevalente per spiegare i comportamenti degli elettori e le scelte dei partiti si basa sul cosiddetto "teorema dell'elettore mediano", secondo cui i partiti, per vincere le elezioni, devono spostarsi progressivamente verso il centro, fino a diventare indistinguibili l'uno dall'altro. Ma questo modello non funziona. Se funzionasse, dovrebbe vincere sempre chi si trova al centro dello spazio politico, mentre sappiamo che possono avere successo candidati fortemente sfavoriti dalla loro "collocazione spaziale", ovvero lontani dal punto mediano. Determinante a questo proposito è il grado di interesse per la politica: gli elettori meno coinvolti sono maggiormente capaci di esprimere un voto svincolato dall'orientamento politico. Questo interessante modello alternativo, che spiega risultati altrimenti incomprensibili, viene testato sulla base di dati di sondaggi relativi a venti consultazioni elettorali in Italia, in Francia e negli Stati Uniti nell'arco degli ultimi trent'anni.