Europe matters … upon closer investigation: a novel approach for analysing individual-level determinants of vote choice across first- and second-order elections, applied to 2019 Italy

21 Luglio 2020

Davide Angelucci Lorenzo De Sio Aldo Paparo

Per citare l’articolo:

Angelucci, D., De Sio, L., & Paparo, A. (2020). Europe matters … upon closer investigation: A novel approach for analysing individual-level determinants of vote choice across first- and second-order elections, applied to 2019 Italy. Italian Political Science Review/Rivista Italiana Di Scienza Politica, 1-16. doi:10.1017/ipo.2020.21

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Abstract

Are European Parliament (EP) elections still second-order? In this article, we test the classical model at the individual level in contrast to an alternative ‘Europe matters’ model, by investigating the relative importance of domestic vs. European Union (EU)-related issues among voter-level determinants of aggregate second-order effects, that is, individual party change. We do so by relying on an original, CAWI pre-electoral survey featuring a distinctively large (30) number of both domestic and EU-related, positional and valence issues, with issue attitudes measured according to the innovative ICCP scheme (De Sio and Lachat 2020) which includes issue positions, issue priorities and respondents’ assessment of party credibility on both positional and valence goals. Leveraging the concept of ‘normal vote’, we estimate multivariate models of electoral defections from normal voting separately for general and European elections, based on issue party credibility. This allows us to assess: (a) the distinctiveness of the two electoral arenas in terms of issue content; and (b) the relative impact of EU-related and domestic issues on defections of Italian voters. Our findings show that although second-order effects are still relevant in accounting for results in EP elections, vote choice in the latter is also partly due to specific effects of certain policy issues, including some related to the European dimension. This indicates that EP elections have their own political content, for which Europe matters even after controlling for the importance that EU-related issues have acquired in national elections.

Davide Angelucci

Davide Angelucci ha conseguito un dottorato di ricerca presso l'Università di Siena ed è attualmente assegnista di ricerca presso il CISE, alla LUISS – Guido Carli. I suoi interessi di ricerca si concentrano sul comportamento e sulla partecipazione politica. Attualmente sta lavorando su class-voting e diseguaglianze politiche.

Lorenzo De Sio

Lorenzo De Sio è professore ordinario di Scienza Politica presso la LUISS Guido Carli, e direttore del CISE - Centro Italiano di Studi Elettorali. Già Jean Monnet Fellow presso lo European University Institute, Visiting Research Fellow presso la University of California, Irvine, e Campbell National Fellow presso la Stanford University, è membro di ITANES (Italian National Election Studies), ha partecipato a vari progetti di ricerca internazionali, tra cui “The True European Voter”(ESF-COST Action IS0806), the “EU Profiler” (2009) e EUandI (2014), e di recente ha dato vita al progetto ICCP (Issue Competition Comparative Project). I suoi interessi di ricerca attuali vertono sull'analisi quantitativa dei comportamenti di voto e delle strategie di partito in prospettiva comparata, con particolare attenzione al ruolo delle issues. Tra le sue pubblicazioni, accanto a vari volumi in italiano e in inglese, ci sono articoli apparsi su American Political Science Review, Comparative Political Studies, Electoral Studies, Party Politics, West European Politics, South European Society and Politics, oltre che su numerose riviste scientifiche italiane. Clicca qui per accedere al profilo su IRIS.

Aldo Paparo

Aldo Paparo è ricercatore presso il Dipartimento di Scienze Politiche e Sociali dell'Università di Firenze. È stato assegnista di ricerca presso il Dipartimento di Scienze Politiche alla LUISS Guido Carli. Dopo il conseguimento del dottorato è stato W. Glenn Campbell and Rita Ricardo-Campbell National Fellow presso la Hoover Institution alla Stanford University, dove ha condotto una ricerca sulla identificazione di partito in chiave comparata. Ha conseguito con lode il dottorato di ricerca in Scienza della Politica presso la Scuola Normale Superiore (ex SUM) di Firenze, con una tesi sugli effetti del ciclo politico nazionale sui risultati delle elezioni locali in Europa occidentale. Ha conseguito con lode la laurea magistrale presso Facoltà di Scienze Politiche “Cesare Alfieri” della Università degli Studi di Firenze, discutendo una tesi sulle elezioni comunali nell’Italia meridionale. Le sue principali aree di interesse sono i sistemi elettorali, i sistemi politici e il comportamento elettorale, con particolare riferimento al livello locale. Ha co-curato numerosi volumi della serie dei Dossier CISE; e ha pubblicato articoli scientifici su South European Society and Politics, Italian Political Science, Quaderni dell’Osservatorio Elettorale, Contemporary Italian Politics e su Monkey Cage. È stato inoltre co-autore di un capitolo in Terremoto elettorale (Il Mulino 2014). È membro dell’APSA, della MPSA, della ESPA, della ECPR, della SISP e della SISE. Clicca qui per accedere al profilo su IRIS.

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Europe matters … upon closer investigation: a novel approach for analysing individual-level determinants of vote choice across first- and second-order elections, applied to 2019 Italy

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