Redazione CISE

Segnalazione bibliografica. Autori: Brian Greenhill; Michael D. Ward; Audrey Sacks American Journal of Political Science, Volume 55, Number 4, 1 October 2011 , pp. 991-1002(12) Abstract We present a visual method for assessing the predictive power of models with binary outcomes. This technique allows the analyst to evaluate model fit based upon the models' ability to consistently match high-probability predictions to actual occurrences of the event of interest, and low-probability predictions to nonoccurrences of the event of interest. Unlike existing methods for assessing predictive power for logit...

Dal 6 al 9 febbraio 2012, 35 giovani dottorandi e dottori di ricerca da 27 paesi europei varcheranno le aule del Dipartimento di Scienze Politiche della LUISS. E' ospitata infatti a Roma, con l'organizzazione locale a cura del CISE, la terza edizione della Winter School "Methodological Issues in Comparative Electoral Analysis" organizzata dal progetto "The True European Voter" finanziato dalla European Science Foundation. Diretto da Hermann Schmitt (MZES - Università di Mannheim; Università di Manchester) e da Paolo Segatti (Università di Milano), il progetto "The True European Voter" si pone come obiettivo l'armonizzazione e l'analisi congiunta dei dati relativi a tutte...

Segnalazione bibliografica. American Journal of Political Science, Volume 55, Number 4, 1 October 2011 , pp. 937-954(18) Autori: Garrett Glasgow; Matt Golder;  Sona N. Golder Abstract The prime ministership is the preeminent political post in parliamentary democracies. Yet few studies examine PM party choice, perhaps under the assumption that the choice is a simple function of party size. In this article, we argue that key strategic actors and the context in which government negotiations take place can play a critical role in PM party choice. We test our hypotheses using a mixed logit with random coefficients on an original data set...

Segnalazione bibliografica. American Journal of Political Science, Volume 55, Number 4, 1 October 2011 , pp. 923-936(14) Autore: Margit Tavits Abstract This study argues that organizationally stronger local party branches are more powerful within the party than organizationally weaker branches: they can better perform the tasks central to the party, which include communication with, and mobilization of, voters. I further argue that this subunit power should be manifested in the parliamentary behavior and status of MPs: those from districts where the local party organization is strong are more...

Segnalazione bibliografica. American Journal of Political Science, Volume 55, Number 4, 1 October 2011 , pp. 907-922(16) Autore: Till Weber Abstract Very few theories of democratic elections can claim to overarch the field. One of them that has not been given due regard, I suggest, is Albert Hirschman's Exit, Voice, and Loyalty. I aim to exploit the integrative capacity of this general framework in a model of typical “midterm“ effects occurring through the electoral cycle. The model unites such diverse phenomena as antigovernment swings, declining turnout, protest voting,...