Autore: Redazione CISE

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Autori: James Adams, Catherine E. De Vries, Debra Leiter

British Journal of Political Science January 2012 42 : pp 81-105

Abstract

During the 1980s and the 1990s, the elites of the two largest Dutch parties converged dramatically in debates on income redistribution, nuclear power and the overall Left–Right dimension, paving the way for the Dutch party system’s polarization on immigration and cultural issues. Did the Dutch mass public depolarize along with party elites, and, if so, was this mass-level depolarization confined to affluent, educated, politically engaged citizens? Analysis of Dutch Parliamentary Election Study respondents’ policy beliefs and partisan loyalties in 1986–98 shows that the mass public depolarized during this period, and that this extended equally throughout the electorate. These conclusions mirror previous findings on Britain, but differ from those on the United States, and have important implications for political representation and for parties’ election strategies.

Full Text: https://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=8444233

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Autori: Brian Greenhill; Michael D. Ward; Audrey Sacks

American Journal of Political Science, Volume 55, Number 4, 1 October 2011 , pp. 991-1002(12)

Abstract

We present a visual method for assessing the predictive power of models with binary outcomes. This technique allows the analyst to evaluate model fit based upon the models’ ability to consistently match high-probability predictions to actual occurrences of the event of interest, and low-probability predictions to nonoccurrences of the event of interest. (https://www.speedclean.com/) Unlike existing methods for assessing predictive power for logit and probit models such as Percent Correctly Predicted statistics, Brier scores, and the ROC plot, our “separation plot“ has the advantage of producing a visual display that is informative and easy to explain to a general audience, while also remaining insensitive to the often arbitrary probability thresholds that are used to distinguish between predicted events and nonevents. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique in building predictive models in a number of different areas of political research.

Full Text: https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/bpl/ajps/2011/00000055/00000004/art00018

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American Journal of Political Science, Volume 55, Number 4, 1 October 2011 , pp. 937-954(18)

Autori: Garrett Glasgow; Matt Golder;  Sona N. Golder

Abstract

The prime ministership is the preeminent political post in parliamentary democracies. Yet few studies examine PM party choice, perhaps under the assumption that the choice is a simple function of party size. In this article, we argue that key strategic actors and the context in which government negotiations take place can play a critical role in PM party choice. We test our hypotheses using a mixed logit with random coefficients on an original data set comprising PM selection opportunities in 28 European countries. Our methodological approach allows us to incorporate qualitative concerns about heterogeneity and causal complexity into our analysis. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that the largest party is often disadvantaged when it comes to PM party choice, that some presidents play an influential role in choosing the PM, and that the value of being the incumbent depends on one’s performance in office and how the previous government ended.

Full Text: https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/bpl/ajps/2011/00000055/00000004/art00015

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American Journal of Political Science, Volume 55, Number 4, 1 October 2011 , pp. 923-936(14)

Autore: Margit Tavits

Abstract

This study argues that organizationally stronger local party branches are more powerful within the party than organizationally weaker branches: they can better perform the tasks central to the party, which include communication with, and mobilization of, voters. I further argue that this subunit power should be manifested in the parliamentary behavior and status of MPs: those from districts where the local party organization is strong are more likely (1) to behave independently in parliament and break party unity and (2) to hold leadership positions in parliamentary committees. I find support for these propositions in the analysis of 12 legislatures from four postcommunist democracies—Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, and Poland. The results remain robust against various alternative explanations.

Full Text: https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/bpl/ajps/2011/00000055/00000004/art00014

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American Journal of Political Science, Volume 55, Number 4, 1 October 2011 , pp. 907-922(16)

Autore: Till Weber

Abstract

Very few theories of democratic elections can claim to overarch the field. One of them that has not been given due regard, I suggest, is Albert Hirschman’s Exit, Voice, and Loyalty. I aim to exploit the integrative capacity of this general framework in a model of typical “midterm“ effects occurring through the electoral cycle. The model unites such diverse phenomena as antigovernment swings, declining turnout, protest voting, conversion, and alienation. An empirical test with comparative survey data from elections to the European Parliament reveals that the role of strategic voting in the form of voice is limited. Instead, processes of de- and realignment in the form of exit dominate a picture of European Parliament elections beyond the widespread conception of “second-order“ irrelevance. More generally, the “cyclical“ view on voting behavior suggests systematic links between short-run midterm effects and long-run electoral change.

Full Text: https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/bpl/ajps/2011/00000055/00000004/art00013

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American Journal of Political Science, Volume 55, Number 4, 1 October 2011 , pp. 869-885(17)

Autori: Taylor C. Boas; Hidalgo, F. Daniel Hidalgo.

Abstract:

Direct influence over communication media is a potent resource during electoral campaigns, and politicians have an incentive to gain control of the airwaves to advance their careers. In this article, we use data on community radio license applications in Brazil to identify both the causal effect of incumbency on politicians’ ability to control the media and the causal effect of media control on their future electoral prospects. Using a regression discontinuity design, we compare city council candidates who barely won or barely lost an election, showing that incumbency more than doubles the probability of an application’s approval by the Ministry of Communications. Next, using genetic matching, we compare candidates who acquired community radio licenses before an election to similar politicians who did not, showing that a radio station substantially increases one’s vote share and probability of victory. These findings demonstrate that media control helps entrench local political power in Brazil.

Full Text: https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/bpl/ajps/2011/00000055/00000004/art00011

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American Journal of Political Science, Volume 55, Number 4, 1 October 2011 , pp. 852-868(17)

Autori: Michael M. Bechtel; Jens Hainmueller

Abstract

Dominant theories of electoral behavior emphasize that voters myopically evaluate policy performance and that this shortsightedness may obstruct the welfare-improving effect of democratic accountability. However, we know little about how long governments receive electoral credit for beneficial policies. We exploit the massive policy response to a major natural disaster, the 2002 Elbe flooding in Germany, to provide an upper bound for the short- and long-term electoral returns to targeted policy benefits. We estimate that the flood response increased vote shares for the incumbent party by 7 percentage points in affected areas in the 2002 election. Twenty-five percent of this short-term reward carried over to the 2005 election before the gains vanished in the 2009 election. We conclude that, given favorable circumstances, policy makers can generate voter gratitude that persists longer than scholarship has acknowledged so far, and elaborate on the implications for theories of electoral behavior, democratic accountability, and public policy.

Full Text: https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/bpl/ajps/2011/00000055/00000004/art00010

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Autrice: Yanna Krupnikov

American Journal of Political Science, Volume 55, Number 4, 1 October 2011 , pp. 797-813(17)

Abstract

Do negative campaign advertisements affect voter turnout? Existing literature on this topic has produced conflicting empirical results. Some scholars show that negativity is demobilizing. Others show that negativity is mobilizing. Still others show that negativity has no effect on turnout. Relying on the psychology of decision making, this research argues and shows that this empirical stalemate is due to the fact that existing work ignores a crucial factor: the timing of exposure to negativity. Two independent empirical tests trace the conditional effect of negativity. The first test relies on data from the 2004 presidential campaign. The second test considers the effect of negativity over a broader period of time by considering elections 1976 to 2000. Taken together, both tests reinforce that negativity can only demobilize when two conditions are met: (1) a person is exposed to negativity after selecting a preferred candidate and (2) the negativity is about this selected candidate.

Full Text: https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/bpl/ajps/2011/00000055/00000004/art00007