Elettori in movimento nelle Comunali 2011 a Milano, Torino e Napoli

Cataldi, Matteo, Emanuele, Vincenzo, & Paparo, Aldo. (n.d.). Elettori in movimento nelle Comunali 2011 a Milano, Torino e Napoli. Quaderni dell’Osservatorio Elettorale, 67, 5–43. Retrieved from http://www.regione.toscana.it/documents/10180/452241/osservatorio%20elettorale%2067_Cataldi/df2acf48-6944-4072-b1b4-046d22b6bcc2


In 2011 Italian local elections we observed high electoral mobility: in Milan, for example, the center-left gained his first-time victory in the Berlusconi era, while in Naples there was a significant split voting in the first round and a huge turnaround between the first and the second ballot. A general research question emerged: are the shifts in the results understandable trough a left-right axis (political nature hypothesis of these elections) or were there cross-cutting mechanisms (local nature hypothesis of the elections with a strong role of personal aspects)?
To answer the question we analyze the voting ecological estimates in the three biggest cities involved in 2011 elections: Milan, Naples and Turin. For every matrix we generated the estimates both applying the traditional Goodman model (for the whole city and splitting by district) and the hierarchical multinomial-dirichlet model developed by Rosen, Jiang, King and Taner.
The most important result of our study is the strong political polarization of the vote in the two northern cities and a great importance of the local factors in Naples, where only a dominant role of the candidates can make sense of the detected shifts in voting behaviour.

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