Dopo l’evento inaugurale di Telescope dedicato a Donald Trump, prosegue Telescope World Watch, con una nuova puntata dedicata alla Turchia, reduce dalle importanti elezioni presidenziali del 2023 e amministrative del 2024. Sempre con la stessa impostazione: guardando a diversi paesi nel mondo non dal punto di vista della politica internazionale, ma con uno sguardo alle loro dinamiche politiche interne, in termini di opinione pubblica ed elezioni. E per parlare del caso turco abbiamo invitato Ali Çarkoğlu, massimo esperto turco di elezioni e opinione pubblica. Ali Çarkoğlu sarà in Luiss il prossimo giovedì 30 maggio alle ore 12:30, per tenere un seminario (organizzato in collaborazione con il Department Cluster of Research Excellence “Elections and Political Systems”) dal titolo Electoral Trends in Turkey’s 2023 General and 2024 Local Elections. Sarà possibile seguire il seminario in presenza (qui il link alla registrazione) oppure anche online a questo indirizzo. Il seminario si svolgerà interamente in inglese.
Chi è Ali Çarkoğlu
Ali Çarkoğlu is currently a professor of political science at Koc University-Istanbul. He received his Ph. D. at the State University of New York-Binghamton in 1994. He previously taught at Boğaziçi and Sabancı universities in Istanbul. He was a resident fellow in 2008-2009 at the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study in the Humanities and Social Sciences (NIAS). His areas of research interest include voting behavior, elections, public opinion and party politics in Turkey. He is the founding director of the Center for Survey Research and the Center for Civil Society and Philanthropy Research. He is on the editorial board of Turkish Studies, South European Society and Politics, and Insight Turkey. His most recent book, co-authored with Ersin Kalaycıoğlu, appeared in the University of Michigan Press: Fragile but Resilient? Turkish Electoral Dynamics, 2002-2015 (2021).
Abstract del seminario
As the May 2023 elections drew near, the conditions for a significant electoral meltdown in Turkey appeared to be favorable. Many individuals in both government and opposition circles anticipated that the AKP’s 21-year tenure would end, with the electorate holding the incumbent party and its leader accountable for their dismal performance, especially on the economic front and in democratic governance. However, Erdoğan won the presidency in the second round, and his People’s Alliance secured a comfortable margin for controlling the Turkish Grand National Assembly. The question remains: What factors contributed to Erdoğan’s remarkable survival against all odds? Who were Erdoğan’s supporters, and on what issue bases did they cast their votes for him? In this paper, I examine these questions using individual-level post-election data. I argue that Erdoğan’s survival primarily depended on his multi-dimensional performance evaluations and successful positioning on several key issues for conservative voters. Prospective pocketbook evaluations, considering one’s family’s financial situation, and significant support from low-educated middle-to-old-age groups also contributed to Erdoğan’s support. However, ethnic and sectarian minority groups such as Kurds and Alevis appeared to be negatively predisposed to voting for Erdoğan. Based on these findings, I speculate on how Erdoğan and his electoral alliance could strategize for the next presidential and assembly elections.