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Home Macron with a comfortable majority undermined by record low turnout
Elie Michel
Elie is PhD researcher in the department of Social and Political Science at the European University Institute.
He is interested in political sociology and political behaviour, specifically elections and representation. His research now focuses on populism and radical right parties in Western Europe.
He's writing his thesis on the relation between welfare politics and the radical right under the supervision of Hanspeter Kriesi. He bridges the sociology of the welfare state to the literature on radical right movements; more precisely, He looks at the welfare preferences of radical right parties and voters in Western Europe.
He graduated from Sciences Po Paris in electoral studies and he has participated to several research projects on party positions and Voting Advice Application in Europe.
He is also interested and invested in research management and university administration.
Macron with a comfortable majority undermined by record low turnout
Emmanuel Macron’s presidential majority – consisting of his movement La République En Marche (LREM) and centrist party Modem – has largely win the second round of the legislative elections on June 18, although with a smaller margin than predicted after the first round. LREM on its own has obtained the absolute majority in the lower house with 308 seats out of 577. Mainstream parties of the left and the right realized some of the worst electoral performances in parliamentary elections: the Parti Socialiste (PS) hits a record low, with only 30 MPs, and making a parliamentary group of a...
French parliamentary elections: Macron’s successful bet
La République en Marche (LREM), Emmanuel Macron’s newly formed political party has taken a decisive lead in the first round of the legislative elections with 32% of the votes on Sunday June 11. Les Républicains (LR, right) come second with 21%, followed by the Front National at 13% (FN, radical right), La France Insoumise at 11% (LFI, radical left), and Parti Socialiste (PS) with a bit less than 10% of the votes (including its traditional allies).
In a two-round single member district electoral system, the lead of LREM (despite being around 11%) could lead to a hegemonic domination in...
Presidenziali in Francia: cronaca di una sorpresa prevista
(Traduzione in italiano di Cristiano Gatti)
La movimentata e non convenzionale campagna per le elezioni presidenziali francesi si è conclusa (per il primo tempo) domenica notte. Il candidato centrista Emmanuel Macron (24,0%) e la candidata della destra radicale del Front National Marine Le Pen (21,3%) si sono qualificati per il ballottaggio delle elezioni presidenziali. Anche se i sondaggi avevano predetto tale risultato nei mesi precedenti alle elezioni, si tratta comunque di una sorpresa. Il risultato è stato storicamente incerto e 4 candidati hanno raccolto intorno al 20% dei voti. Inoltre entrambi i partiti tradizionali sono stati eliminati. Dopo Macron e...
French presidential election: An expected surprise
The eventful and unconventional campaign for the French presidential elections (partly) came to an end on Sunday night. Centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron (24,0%) and radical right Marine Le Pen (21,3%) of the Front National have both qualified for the run-off of the presidential election. Even though polls had predicted this results in the months coming to the election, it still constitutes a surprise. The outcome is historically close, and 4 candidates have gathered around 20% of the electorate, and both mainstream parties have been eliminated. After Macron and Le Pen, right-wing candidate François Fillon (20,0%) and radical left Jean-Luc...
Ideology or ‘cherry-picking’? The issue opportunity structure for candidates in France
Building on the tools provided by issue yield theory (De Sio and Weber 2014), this analysis looks at the data collected by CISE through a CAWI survey launched a few weeks before the first round of the French presidential election. We rely here on an innovative measurement of positional issues, which provides a common issue yield index for this type of issues. Positional issues are, in general, defined by reference to two rival goals (e.g. progressive vs. traditional morality): the issue yield measure assesses the presence of related strategic issue opportunities for a party or a candidate. The core dimensions originally...