Tra dinamiche territoriali e voto personale: le elezioni comunali 2012 a Palermo

Emanuele, Vincenzo, V. (n.d.). Tra dinamiche territoriali e voto personale: le elezioni comunali 2012 a Palermo. Quaderni dell’Osservatorio Elettorale, 69, 5–34. Retrieved from http://www.regione.toscana.it/documents/10180/452241/Quaderni+Osservatorio+Elettorale+n+69.pdf/5f506155-f8b7-406c-b08d-94b6800f7469

ABSTRACT

The 2012 municipal election in Palermo produced an unexpected outcome.
In the Sicilian city – for a long time a conservative stronghold – the center-right candidate,
Massimo Costa did not succeed to reach the second ballot and the election was won
by the former Major Leoluca Orlando, supported by a radical left coalition. Orlando
prevailed with a sensational 72% of the vote share against the winner of the center-left
primary elections, Fabrizio Ferrandelli.
What happened in the 2012 Palermo municipal election? Does the Sicilian capital moved
suddenly toward the left? Which factors fostered this sharp and unpredictable electoral
change that altered the long-time-established political landscape of the City?
To answer these questions, the article analyzes the results of the 2012 municipal election
in Palermo through an electoral geography approach and the use of a quantitative methodology
with ecological data. In particular, the article makes use of both the territorial
study of turnout and election results and the voting ecological estimates generated with
the traditional Goodman model.
The empirical analysis shows that this election was strongly influenced by factors linked
to the local context more than by authentically political ones. In other words, Palermo
did not move toward the left. Moreover, the internal electoral segmentation of the City
between central and peripheral neighborhoods persisted as the main determinant of the
vote choice.

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Vincenzo Emanuele è ricercatore in Scienza Politica presso la LUISS Guido Carli di Roma. Ha conseguito il dottorato di ricerca in Scienza della Politica presso la Scuola Normale Superiore (ex SUM) di Firenze con una tesi sul processo di nazionalizzazione del voto in Europa occidentale e le sue possibili determinanti. La sua tesi ha vinto il Premio 'Enrico Melchionda' conferita alle tesi di dottorato in Scienze Politiche discusse nel triennio 2012-2014 e il Premio 'Celso Ghini' come miglior tesi di dottorato in materia elettorale del biennio 2013-2014. È membro del CISE, di ITANES (Italian National Election Studies) e co-coordinatore del Research Network in Political Parties, Party Systems and Elections del CES (Council of European Studies). I suoi interessi di ricerca si concentrano sulle elezioni e i sistemi di partito in prospettiva comparata, con particolare riferimento ai processi di nazionalizzazione e istituzionalizzazione. Ha pubblicato articoli su Comparative Political Studies, Party Politics, South European Society and Politics, Government and Opposition, Regional and Federal Studies, Journal of Contemporary European Research, oltre che sulle principali riviste scientifiche italiane. La sua monografia Cleavages, institutions, and competition. Understanding vote nationalization in Western Europe (1965-2015) è edita da Rowman and Littlefield/ECPR Press (2018). Sulle elezioni italiane del 2018, ha curato la Special Issue di Italian Political Science ‘Who’s the winner? An analysis of the 2018 Italian general election’. Clicca qui per accedere sito internet personale. Clicca qui per accedere al profilo su IRIS.