“Cosa succede in città?” Disponibile il Dossier CISE sulle comunali 2016

8 Luglio 2016

Cosa succede in città?
Le elezioni comunali 2016

a cura di Vincenzo Emanuele, Nicola Maggini e Aldo Paparo

Il successo del Movimento 5 Stelle, con le vittorie storiche di Roma e Torino; le difficoltà del centrosinistra, con il PD di Renzi che subisce per la prima volta una pesante battuta d’arresto; la tenuta del centrodestra che dimostra, quando è unito, di essere ancora un polo competitivo. Il tutto in un contesto di crescente astensionismo, volatilità e frammentazione del quadro politico, con la stragrande maggioranza delle sfide decise solo al ballottaggio e la presenza di leader locali e candidati civici competitivi in diverse città.
Questi, in estrema sintesi, i risultati principali emersi dalla elezioni comunali del 2016. Una tornata elettorale che poteva apparire un appuntamento di secondaria importanza alla vigilia, ma che si è invece rivelato uno snodo cruciale per il futuro della politica italiana. ‘Cosa succede in città?’ è la domanda a cui cerca di dare risposta questo ottavo Dossier CISE che raccoglie tutte le analisi sul tema pubblicate sul sito web CISE prima e dopo le elezioni: l’analisi della situazione di partenza (dalle primarie al quadro dell’offerta politica); i risultati del primo turno (con approfondimenti sulla partecipazione al voto, risultati di partiti e aree politiche, flussi elettorali, voto di preferenza e sull’evoluzione del sistema partitico); i risultati dei ballottaggi, che delineano il quadro definitivo delle vittorie e delle sconfitte e mostrano con chiarezza quello che è forse il principale dato politico in chiave nazionale di queste elezioni locali: la capacità del Movimento 5 Stelle di vincere sistematicamente i ballottaggi ottenendo le ‘seconde preferenze’ degli elettori dei candidati sconfitti al primo turno, confermando di essere una forza politica con un consenso trasversale, l’unico vero ‘partito della nazione’.
Le analisi di questo Dossier CISE, basate su dati aggregati e stime di flussi elettorali, forniscono una base empirica per la discussione e l’interpretazione di questa tornata elettorale e offrono degli spunti di riflessione per ricerche future.

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Cosa succede in città? Le elezioni comunali 2016

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Cosa succede in città?
Le elezioni comunali 2016