Follow the Candidates, Not the Parties? Personal Vote in a Regional De-institutionalized Party System

12 Settembre 2016

Emanuele, V. and Marino, B. (2016), ‘Follow the candidates, not the parties? Personal vote in a regional de-institutionalised party system‘, Regional and Federal Studies

Abstract

This article analyses how personal vote shapes electoral competition and predicts electoral results in a regional de-institutionalized party system. After having analysed the connection between unpredictable political environment and personal vote, we build an original empirical model that explores preferential vote and patterns of re-candidacies and endorsements of the most voted candidates in the Calabrian regional elections. The analysis shows that leading candidates retain a more stable and predictable support over time with respect to parties and that candidates and their system of interactions are able to predict the electoral results better than parties and their alliances.

Vincenzo Emanuele

Vincenzo Emanuele è ricercatore in Scienza Politica presso la LUISS Guido Carli di Roma. Ha conseguito il dottorato di ricerca in Scienza della Politica presso la Scuola Normale Superiore (ex SUM) di Firenze con una tesi sul processo di nazionalizzazione del voto in Europa occidentale e le sue possibili determinanti. La sua tesi ha vinto il Premio 'Enrico Melchionda' conferita alle tesi di dottorato in Scienze Politiche discusse nel triennio 2012-2014 e il Premio 'Celso Ghini' come miglior tesi di dottorato in materia elettorale del biennio 2013-2014. È membro del CISE, di ITANES (Italian National Election Studies) e co-coordinatore del Research Network in Political Parties, Party Systems and Elections del CES (Council of European Studies). I suoi interessi di ricerca si concentrano sulle elezioni e i sistemi di partito in prospettiva comparata, con particolare riferimento ai processi di nazionalizzazione e istituzionalizzazione. Ha pubblicato articoli su Comparative Political Studies, Party Politics, South European Society and Politics, Government and Opposition, Regional and Federal Studies, Journal of Contemporary European Research, oltre che sulle principali riviste scientifiche italiane. La sua monografia Cleavages, institutions, and competition. Understanding vote nationalization in Western Europe (1965-2015) è edita da Rowman and Littlefield/ECPR Press (2018). Sulle elezioni italiane del 2018, ha curato la Special Issue di Italian Political Science ‘Who’s the winner? An analysis of the 2018 Italian general election’. Clicca qui per accedere sito internet personale. Clicca qui per accedere al profilo su IRIS.

Bruno Marino

Bruno Marino è assegnista di ricerca presso il Dipartimento di Scienze Politiche alla Luiss Guido Carli. I suoi interessi di ricerca comprendono partiti e sistemi di partito in prospettiva comparata, élite politiche e la personalizzazione della politica. Ha pubblicato articoli su West European Politics, Government and Opposition, Acta Politica, Electoral Studies, European Political Science Review, Regional and Federal Studies, Italian Political Science Review/Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica. La sua monografia, Party Leaders and their Selection Rules in Western Europe, è stata pubblicata da Routledge.

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Follow the Candidates, Not the Parties? Personal Vote in a Regional De-institutionalized Party System

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