Il referendum e l’istruzione

18 Novembre 2016

di Matteo Cataldi

Tra gli elettori che in merito al referendum del prossimo 4 dicembre hanno già maturato una scelta di voto, il sondaggio Cise-Sole 24 Ore, mostra un andamento chiaro dei favorevoli/contrari alla riforma a seconda del titolo di studio conseguito.

Nel campo del No questa tendenza è lineare. La massima concentrazione dei contrari alla riforma si ha tra i laureati (41%) e i diplomati (39%). In queste due categorie il vantaggio sul Sì è massimo (oltre 10 punti), con i favorevoli al 29% tra i laureati e al 30% tra i diplomati. Nel passaggio agli intervistati con un livello di studio più basso, gli oppositori della riforma costituzionale calano di 10 punti percentuali, al 29%, per chi possiede la licenza media, ancora davanti al Sì, ma per meno di due punti. Tra chi non è in possesso di alcun titolo di studio o ha conseguito, al più, la licenza elementare, i rapporti di forza tra i due schieramenti si ribaltano rispetto alla situazione vista fra gli elettori più istruiti. In questa categoria i favorevoli alle modifiche costituzionali superano il 35% e sopravanzano i contrari di oltre 10 punti (24%).

Gli indecisi e chi, almeno per il momento, sarebbe orientato verso l’astensione, rappresentano poco più di un terzo del nostro campione (36%). Risultano sovrarappresentati tra coloro che hanno un titolo di studio basso, e in modo particolare, tra gli intervistati in possesso della licenza di scuola media inferiore (44%) e, sottorappresentati tra chi ha un diploma (32%) e chi ha conseguito una laurea (30%)

Tab. 1 – Intenzioni di voto al referendum per titolo di studio

Matteo Cataldi

Matteo Cataldi si è laureato presso la Facoltà di Scienze politiche “Cesare Alfieri” dell’Università di Firenze con una tesi sulla competitività delle elezioni italiane. È stato ricercatore presso Tolomeo Studi e Ricerche e ha pubblicato articoli su Polena e Quaderni dell’Osservatorio Elettorale, è co-autore di un capitolo di Terremoto elettorale (Il Mulino, 2014) e co-curatore di vari Dossier CISE e di numerose note di ricerche apparse nella serie di Dossier. Ha inoltre curato l’appendice al volume “Proporzionale se vi pare” (Il Mulino, 2010). I suoi interessi di ricerca comprendono lo studio del comportamento elettorale e in particolare il cambiamento della geografia del voto, anche attraverso i più recenti sviluppi degli applicativi GIS in ambito politico-sociale. È membro SISP e dello Standing Group POPE – Partiti Opinione Pubblica Elezioni.

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