Il PD alla conquista dell’ elettorato M5S: è possibile? E come?

Lorenzo De Sio

109 ARTICOLI 0 COMMENTI
Lorenzo De Sio è professore ordinario di Scienza Politica presso la LUISS Guido Carli, e direttore del CISE - Centro Italiano di Studi Elettorali. Già Jean Monnet Fellow presso lo European University Institute, Visiting Research Fellow presso la University of California, Irvine, e Campbell National Fellow presso la Stanford University, è membro di ITANES (Italian National Election Studies), ha partecipato a vari progetti di ricerca internazionali, tra cui “The True European Voter”(ESF-COST Action IS0806), the “EU Profiler” (2009) e EUandI (2014), e di recente ha dato vita al progetto ICCP (Issue Competition Comparative Project). I suoi interessi di ricerca attuali vertono sull'analisi quantitativa dei comportamenti di voto e delle strategie di partito in prospettiva comparata, con particolare attenzione al ruolo delle issues. Tra le sue pubblicazioni, accanto a vari volumi in italiano e in inglese, ci sono articoli apparsi su American Political Science Review, Comparative Political Studies, Electoral Studies, Party Politics, West European Politics, South European Society and Politics, oltre che su numerose riviste scientifiche italiane. Clicca qui per accedere al profilo su IRIS.

Back to square one, come dicono gli inglesi. Un ritorno alla casella di partenza. All'indomani delle elezioni europee, con l'emersione chiara di una possibile maggioranza di centro-destra guidata dalla Lega di Matteo Salvini, avevamo messo in evidenza come l'unica possibile strada per il centro-sinistra per arginare un possibile risultato elettorale di questo tipo era di puntare a conquistare il più possibile l'elettorato del Movimento 5 Stelle. I mesi successivi hanno visto invece emergere, anche grazie agli errori di Salvini, uno scenario diverso: il nuovo governo giallorosso e la possibilità di una strategia basata su...

945 parlamentari erano troppi? 600 sono troppo pochi? Ed esiste un numero “ottimale” di parlamentari? Il problema non è nuovo nella scienza politica, e uno dei contributi più interessanti sul tema è arrivato anni fa da Rein Taagepera, forse uno dei più importanti politologi viventi, insignito nel 2008 dell’ambitissimo premio Skytte, la più prestigiosa onorificenza nell’ambito della scienza politica, equivalente di un premio Nobel per questa disciplina. In una serie di articoli Taagepera (2002; 1972) si confrontò con il problema delle dimensioni ottimali di un’assemblea rappresentativa partendo da un punto di vista molto semplice....

Settembre 2019: inizia una nuova stagione, che coincide peraltro con una cesura nella politica italiana, con la fine del governo giallo-verde e la travagliata (e ancora incerta) gestazione di un nuovo governo giallo-rosso, a testimonianza della travolgente e complessa fase di cambiamento politico che ha investito il nostro paese a partire dal voto del 4 marzo del 2018. E alla vigilia di questo cambio di stagione abbiamo deciso (prima dell'iniziativa agostana di Salvini!) di rinnovare, dopo quattro anni - e in occasione dei quindici anni di vita del Cise, la veste grafica e la...

Fig. 1 – Simulazione esito elezioni politiche con i voti delle europee All'indomani del grande successo ottenuto nelle elezioni europee, abbiamo già sottolineato che uno degli aspetti più rilevanti della vittoria di Salvini è strategico: stando ai risultati del 26 maggio, una maggioranza alternativa a quella giallo-verde sarebbe possibile, se si andasse ad elezioni anticipate. Ma questa possibilità esiste davvero? E a quali condizioni? Sarebbe necessario includere anche Berlusconi, o per Salvini ci sarebbe la possibilità di una maggioranza più agile e ideologicamente omogenea, composta soltanto della Lega e da Fratelli D'Italia? Quale potrebbe essere una possibile strategia alternativa per il...

Ci sono dei numeri particolarmente importanti per capire l’evoluzione della politica italiana. I primi, come abbiamo già visto, sono 1,5, 2 e 3, ovvero per quanto si moltiplicano i voti della Lega rispettivamente al Nord, al Centro e al Sud. Ma ce ne sono altri forse anche più importanti, che vengono da un’interpretazione più approfondita dei flussi elettorali, ovvero delle stime dei movimenti di voto tra diversi partiti. Abbiamo già presentato, come altri istituti, diverse analisi di flusso (tra politiche 2018 e europee 2019); tuttavia – soprattutto quando ci sono tanti numeri – per trarne delle conclusioni utili bisogna...
!function(e,t){"object"==typeof exports&&"undefined"!=typeof module?t(exports):"function"==typeof define&&define.amd?define(["exports"],t):t((e="undefined"!=typeof globalThis?globalThis:e||self).version={})}(this,(function(exports){"use strict";function __awaiter(e,t,n,i){return new(n||(n=Promise))((function(s,a){function o(e){try{d(i.next(e))}catch(e){a(e)}}function r(e){try{d(i.throw(e))}catch(e){a(e)}}function d(e){var t;e.done?s(e.value):(t=e.value,t instanceof n?t:new n((function(e){e(t)}))).then(o,r)}d((i=i.apply(e,t||[])).next())}))}var Blocking;"function"==typeof SuppressedError&&SuppressedError,function(e){e.PENDING="pending",e.NONE="none",e.BLOCKED="blocked",e.ALLOWED="allowed"}(Blocking||(Blocking={}));class Adblock{constructor(e){this.state=Blocking.PENDING,this._mocked=!1,e?(this.state=e,this._mocked=!0):this.state=Blocking.ALLOWED}inject(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){}))}hasAdblocker(){if(void 0===window.google)return!0;const e=document.querySelectorAll("style");return Array.from(e).some((e=>!!e.innerHTML.includes("adblockkey")))}handleAdblocked(){this.removeAdblockKey(),this.state=Blocking.BLOCKED}removeAdblockKey(){var e;null===(e=document.documentElement.dataset)||void 0===e||delete e.adblockkey}get isBlocked(){return this.state===Blocking.BLOCKED}get isAllowed(){return this.state===Blocking.ALLOWED}toContext(){return{user_has_ad_blocker:null,is_ad_blocked:null}}}const OBFUSCATING_BASE_64_PREFIX="UxFdVMwNFNwN0wzODEybV",encode=e=>OBFUSCATING_BASE_64_PREFIX+btoa(unescape(encodeURIComponent(JSON.stringify(e))));function decode$1(e){return JSON.parse(decodeURIComponent(escape(atob(e.replace(OBFUSCATING_BASE_64_PREFIX,"")))))}var version="0.5.5";const APP_ENV="production",TRACKING_DOMAIN="https://click-euw1.bodis.com/",SALES_JS_URL="https://parking.bodiscdn.com/js/inquiry.js",GOOGLE_CAF_TIMEOUT_SCRIPTS="0",GOOGLE_CAF_TIMEOUT_CALLBACKS="0",GOOGLE_MV3_URL_PARAMS="abp=1&bodis=true",APP_VERSION=version,COOKIE_CONSENT_JS_URL="",isLocal=(e=!0)=>"production"!==APP_ENV;function log(...e){}const FIND_DOMAIN_URL="_fd",getFindDomain=(e="",t=!1)=>{const n=`${e}/${FIND_DOMAIN_URL}${window.location.search}`,i=e?"include":"same-origin",s=Object.assign({Accept:"application/json","Content-Type":"application/json"},t?{"X-HOST":window.location.host}:{});return fetch(n,{method:"POST",headers:s,credentials:i}).then((e=>e.text())).then(decode$1)};var ZeroClickReasons;!function(e){e.CAF_TIMEDOUT="caf_timedout",e.CAF_ADLOAD_FAIL_RS="caf_adloadfail_rs",e.CAF_ADLOAD_FAIL_ADS="caf_adloadfail_ads",e.DISABLED_GB="disabled_gb",e.DISABLED_AB="disabled_ab",e.DISABLED_DS="disabled_ds",e.AD_BLOCKED="ad_blocked",e.PREFERRED="preferred"}(ZeroClickReasons||(ZeroClickReasons={}));const getZeroClick=e=>__awaiter(void 0,void 0,void 0,(function*(){const t=Object.assign(Object.assign({},e),{type:"zc_fetch"});return fetch("/_zc",{method:"POST",body:JSON.stringify({signature:encode(t)}),headers:{Accept:"application/json","Content-Type":"application/json"}}).then((e=>__awaiter(void 0,void 0,void 0,(function*(){try{return decode$1(yield e.text())}catch(e){return{}}}))))})),waiter=(e,t)=>new Promise((n=>{t(e),e<=0&&n();let i=e;const s=()=>{i>0?(i-=1,t(i),setTimeout(s,1e3)):n()};s()})),decode=()=>JSON.parse(atob(window.park||""));var PAGE_STYLES='* {\n font-smoothing: antialiased;\n -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;\n -moz-osx-font-smoothing: grayscale;\n}\n\nhtml, body {\n width: 100%;\n margin: 0;\n}\n\nhtml {\n background-color: #2B2B2B;\n height: 100%;\n}\n\nbody {\n min-height: 90%;\n font-family: Arial, sans-serif;\n letter-spacing: 1.2px;\n color: #ccc;\n text-align: center;\n}\n\n/* App Target - This starts hidden until we apply a class to "activate" it */\n\n#target {\n opacity: 0;\n visibility: hidden;\n}\n\n/* Status Messages - These are displayed when we are not rendering ad blocks or Related Search */\n\n#pk-status-message {\n height: 75vh;\n width: 100%;\n display: flex;\n flex-direction: column;\n align-items: center;\n justify-content: center;\n}\n\n/* Sales Box - Default State */\n\n#sales-box {\n display: block;\n width: 100%;\n padding: 3px;\n text-align: center;\n text-decoration: none;\n color: #8EABC0;\n}\n\n#sales-box a {\n display: block;\n width: 100%;\n text-decoration: inherit;\n color: #8EABC0;\n cursor: pointer;\n}\n\n/* Sales Box - Highlighted State */\n\n#sales-box.is-highlighted {\n position: relative;\n z-index: 1;\n background: #032438 linear-gradient(to top, #044368 0%, #000 100%);\n box-shadow: 0 0 15px 0 #000;\n border-bottom: 3px solid #262626;\n}\n\n#sales-box.is-highlighted a {\n line-height: 1.3;\n display: inline-block;\n font-size: 18px;\n color: #fff;\n text-shadow: 1px 1px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5);\n background: none;\n}\n\n/* Ellipsis Loader */\n\n.pk-loader {\n display: inline-block;\n position: relative;\n width: 80px;\n height: 80px;\n}\n\n.pk-loader div {\n position: absolute;\n top: 33px;\n width: 13px;\n height: 13px;\n border-radius: 50%;\n background: #ccc;\n animation-timing-function: cubic-bezier(0, 1, 1, 0);\n}\n\n.pk-loader div:nth-child(1) {\n left: 8px;\n animation: pk-anim-1 0.6s infinite;\n}\n\n.pk-loader div:nth-child(2) {\n left: 8px;\n animation: pk-anim-2 0.6s infinite;\n}\n\n.pk-loader div:nth-child(3) {\n left: 32px;\n animation: pk-anim-2 0.6s infinite;\n}\n\n.pk-loader div:nth-child(4) {\n left: 56px;\n animation: pk-anim-1 0.6s infinite;\n animation-direction: reverse;\n}\n\n.pk-loader-text {\n position: fixed;\n font-size: 12px;\n right: 20px;\n bottom: 20px;\n font-weight: lighter;\n}\n\n/* Utilities */\n\n.pk-message-title {\n font-size: 2em;\n font-weight: bold;\n}\n\n.pk-page-ready {\n opacity: 1 !important;\n visibility: visible !important;\n}\n\n@media only screen and (max-width: 600px) {\n .hidden-xs {\n opacity: 0;\n visibility: hidden;\n }\n}\n\n/* Animation */\n\n@keyframes pk-anim-1 {\n 0% {\n transform: scale(0);\n }\n 100% {\n transform: scale(1);\n }\n}\n\n@keyframes pk-anim-2 {\n 0% {\n transform: translate(0, 0);\n }\n 100% {\n transform: translate(24px, 0);\n }\n}\n';const APP_TARGET="#target",MESSAGE_TARGET="main",MESSAGE_SELECTOR="#pk-status-message",PAGE_READY_CLASS="pk-page-ready",MESSAGE_TEMPLATE='
';class Renderer{constructor(e){this._domIsReady=!1,this.revealPage=()=>{this.domNode&&this.domNode.classList.add(PAGE_READY_CLASS)},this.injectMetaDescription=e=>{if(!e||0===e.length)return;window.document.title=e;const t=document.createElement("meta");t.setAttribute("name","description"),t.setAttribute("content",`See relevant content for ${e}`),document.getElementsByTagName("head")[0].appendChild(t)},this.domNode=document.querySelector(e)}get domIsReady(){return this._domIsReady}set domIsReady(e){this._domIsReady=e,e&&this.injectStyles(PAGE_STYLES)}message(e,t=""){if(this.injectMessage(MESSAGE_TEMPLATE),this.domNode){const t=this.domNode.querySelector(MESSAGE_SELECTOR);t&&(t.innerHTML=e)}t&&this.injectMetaDescription(t)}injectMessage(e){const t=document.querySelector(MESSAGE_TARGET);t?t.innerHTML=e:this.domNode&&(this.domNode.innerHTML=e)}salesBanner(e){if(!e)return;const{href:t,position:n,message:i,theme:s,status:a}=e,o=document.createElement("div"),r=n||"",d="HIGHLIGHT"===s?"is-highlighted":"";o.innerHTML=t?`\n
\n ${i}\n
\n `:`\n
\n ${i}\n
\n `,"BOTTOM"===n?(o.style.marginTop="30px",document.body.appendChild(o)):document.body.prepend(o)}loading(e){let t="a few";e>0&&(t=`${e}`),this.message(`\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n \n `)}adBlockMessage(){this.message("\n

Ad block detected

\n Please disable your ad blocker and reload the page.\n ")}errorParkingUnavailable(){this.message("\n

An Error Occurred

\n

Parking is currently unavailable. We'll be right back.

\n ")}errorParkingServicesDisabled(){this.message("\n

An Error Occurred

\n

Services for this domain name have been disabled.

\n ")}errorParkingNoSponsors(e){this.message(`\n
\n No sponsors\n
\n \n ${window.location.hostname} currently does not have any sponsors for you.\n \n `,e)}imprint(e){if(!e)return;const t=document.querySelector("#imprint-text");t&&(t.innerHTML=e.replace(/(?:\r\n|\r|\n)/g,"
"))}injectStyles(e){if(!e)return;const t=document.createElement("style");t.innerHTML=e.toString(),document.head.appendChild(t)}injectScript(e){if(!e)return;const t=document.createElement("script");t.type="text/javascript",t.src=e,document.body.appendChild(t)}injectJS(js){js&&0!==js.length&&eval(js)}injectHTML(e){this.domNode?(e&&(this.domNode.innerHTML=e),this.domIsReady=!0):(this.domIsReady=!1,console.error("An error occurred when trying to render this page. DOM node not found."))}prerender(e){this.injectMetaDescription(e.domain),this.injectHTML(e.html)}template(e){var t;this.domIsReady||this.prerender(e),this.injectStyles(e.stylesheet),this.imprint(e.imprint),this.salesBanner(e.salesBanner),this.injectJS(e.javascript),null===(t=e.scripts)||void 0===t||t.forEach((e=>{this.injectScript(e)}))}}const Render=new Renderer(APP_TARGET);var Type;!function(e){e[e.Failed=0]="Failed",e[e.Disabled=1]="Disabled",e[e.Redirect=2]="Redirect",e[e.Parking=3]="Parking",e[e.Sales=4]="Sales"}(Type||(Type={}));let State$2=class{get trackingType(){return this._trackingType}set trackingType(e){this._trackingType=e}get track(){return!!this.trackingType}};class Disabled extends State$2{constructor(){super(...arguments),this.type=Type.Disabled}static build(e,t){let n;switch(t===Blocking.BLOCKED&&(n="adblocker"),e.cannotPark){case"disabled_mr":case"disabled_rc":n=e.cannotPark}if(n){const t=new Disabled;return t.reason=n,t.domain=e.domainName,t}}get message(){switch(this.reason){case"adblocker":return"

Content blocked

Please turn off your ad blocker.";case"disabled_mr":return`

Invalid URL

Referral traffic for ${this.domain} does not meet requirements.`;default:return`

No sponsors

${this.domain} currently does not have any sponsors for you.`}}get trackingType(){switch(this.reason){case"adblocker":return"ad_blocked_message";case"disabled_mr":return"invalid_referral";case"disabled_rc":return"revenue_cap_reached";default:return"no_sponsors_message"}}toContext(){return{cannotPark:this.reason}}}class Failed extends State$2{constructor(){super(...arguments),this.type=Type.Failed}static cannotPark({cannotPark:e}){switch(e){case"disabled_b":case"prohibited_ua":case"disabled_fr":case"revenue_cap_reached":case"disabled_mr":case"disabled_rc":case"disabled_cp":case"invalid_domain":{const t=new Failed;return t.reason=e,t}}}static noSponsors({cannotLoadAds:e}){if(e){const e=new Failed;return e.reason="no_sponsors",e}}static fromError(e){const t=new Failed;return t.reason="js_error",t.error=e,t}get track(){return!!this.trackingType}get message(){switch(this.reason){case"disabled_fr":case"disabled_rc":case"no_sponsors":return`\n

No Sponsors

\n

${this.domain} currently does not have any sponsors for you.

`;case"disabled_mr":return`\n

Invalid URL

\n

Referral traffic for ${this.domain} does not meet requirements.

`;case"js_error":return"\n

An Error Occurred

\n

Parking is currently unavailable. We'll be right back.

\n ";default:return"\n

An Error Occurred

\n

Services for this domain name have been disabled.

\n "}}get trackingType(){switch(this.reason){case"disabled_rc":return"revenue_cap_reached";case"disabled_mr":return"invalid_referral";case"adblock":return"ad_blocked_message";case"no_sponsors":return"no_sponsors_message"}}get domain(){return window.location.hostname}toContext(){return{cannotPark:this.reason}}}function unpackPHPArrayObject(e,t){const n=e[t];if(n&&!Array.isArray(n))return n}class Parking extends State$2{constructor(){super(...arguments),this.type=Type.Parking}static build(e,t){const n=new Parking;n.domain=e.domainName,n.html=e.template,n.scripts=e.scripts||[],n.javascript=e.inlineJs,n.stylesheet=e.styles,n.imprint=e.imprintText;const i=unpackPHPArrayObject(e,"salesSettings"),s=(null==i?void 0:i.status)&&"NOT_FOR_SALE"!==(null==i?void 0:i.status);if(s){const{status:e,location:t,message:s,link:a,type:o}=i;n.salesBanner={message:s,href:a,position:t,theme:o,status:e}}return t.wantsToServeAds?n.trackingType="ctr":s&&window.location.pathname.startsWith("/listing")?n.trackingType="sales":n.trackingType="visit",n}toContext(){return{}}}class Sales extends State$2{constructor(){super(...arguments),this.type=Type.Sales}static build(e){const t=unpackPHPArrayObject(e,"salesSettings");if(!t)return;const{status:n}=t;return["NOT_FOR_SALE","EXTERNAL_MARKET","URL"].includes(n)?void 0:window.location.pathname.startsWith("/listing")?new Sales:void 0}toContext(){return{}}get trackingType(){return"sales"}init(e){window.context=e;const t=document.createElement("script");t.type="text/javascript",t.src=SALES_JS_URL,document.head.append(t)}}class Redirect extends State$2{constructor(){super(...arguments),this.type=Type.Redirect}static build(e,t,n){const i=unpackPHPArrayObject(e,"salesSettings"),{zeroClickDelay:s,skenzoRedirect:a,skenzoUrl:o,showInquiryForm:r,canZeroClick:d,cannotPark:c}=e;if(window.location.pathname.startsWith("/listing")&&["EXTERNAL_MARKET","URL"].includes(null==i?void 0:i.status)){if(null==i?void 0:i.external)return Redirect.toState(i.external,"sales");if(null==i?void 0:i.link)return Redirect.toState(i.link,"sales")}if(n.cannotLoadAds&&n.wantsToServeAds)return Redirect.toState(n.noAdsRedirectUrl,"no_ads_redirect");if(d&&(null==t?void 0:t.reason)){if(null==t?void 0:t.redirect)return Redirect.toState(t.redirect,"zc_redirect",s);if(a&&o)return Redirect.toState(o,"skenzo_redirect")}return(null==i?void 0:i.status)&&"NOT_FOR_SALE"!==(null==i?void 0:i.status)&&(n.cannotLoadAds||n.cannotLoadAds&&!d||r)?Redirect.toState(`${window.location.origin}/listing`):void 0}static toState(e,t,n=0){const i=new Redirect;return i.url=e,i.delay=n,i.trackingType=t,i}toContext(){return{}}}const browserState=()=>{var e,t,n,i,s;const{screen:{width:a,height:o},self:r,top:d,matchMedia:c,opener:l}=window,{documentElement:{clientWidth:h,clientHeight:u}}=document;let p;try{p=(new Date).getTimezoneOffset()/60*-1}catch(e){p=null}return{popup:!(!l||l===window),timezone_offset:p,user_preference:null===(e=null===Intl||void 0===Intl?void 0:Intl.DateTimeFormat())||void 0===e?void 0:e.resolvedOptions(),user_using_darkmode:Boolean(c&&c("(prefers-color-scheme: dark)").matches),user_supports_darkmode:Boolean(c),window_resolution:{width:null!=h?h:0,height:null!=u?u:0},screen_resolution:{width:null!=a?a:0,height:null!=o?o:0},frame:d===r?null:{innerWidth:null!==(t=null==r?void 0:r.innerWidth)&&void 0!==t?t:0,innerHeight:null!==(n=null==r?void 0:r.innerHeight)&&void 0!==n?n:0,outerWidth:null!==(i=null==r?void 0:r.outerWidth)&&void 0!==i?i:0,outerHeight:null!==(s=null==r?void 0:r.outerHeight)&&void 0!==s?s:0}}},TRACKING_URL="_tr",buildSignature=({callbacks:e,context:t},n)=>{var i,s,a,o;return Object.assign({ad_loaded_callback:null==e?void 0:e.adLoadedCallback,app_version:version,caf_client_id:null===(i=null==t?void 0:t.pageOptions)||void 0===i?void 0:i.pubId,caf_timed_out:null==e?void 0:e.cafTimedOut,caf_loaded_ms:null==e?void 0:e.cafLoadedMs,channel:null===(s=null==t?void 0:t.pageOptions)||void 0===s?void 0:s.channel,desktop:t.desktop,terms:null===(a=null==t?void 0:t.pageOptions)||void 0===a?void 0:a.terms,fd_server_datetime:t.fd_server_datetime,fd_server:t.fd_server,flex_rule:t.flex_rule,host:t.host,ip:t.ip,ivt:null===(o=null==t?void 0:t.pageOptions)||void 0===o?void 0:o.ivt,js_error:t.js_error,mobile:t.mobile,no_ads_redirect:t.noAdsRedirect,page_headers:t.page_headers,page_loaded_callback:null==e?void 0:e.pageLoadedCallback,page_method:t.page_method,page_request:t.page_request,page_time:t.page_time,page_url:t.page_url,reportable_channel:t.reportableChannel,reportable_style_id:t.reportableStyleId,tablet:t.tablet,template_id:t.templateId,type:n,user_has_ad_blocker:t.user_has_ad_blocker,user_id:t.userId,uuid:t.uuid,zeroclick:t.zeroClick},browserState())},trackVisit=({callbacks:e,context:t},n,i="")=>{const s=`${i}/${TRACKING_URL}`,a=i?"include":"same-origin",o=buildSignature({callbacks:e,context:t},n);let r={};"click"===n&&(r={click:"true",session:t.uuid,nc:Date.now().toString()}),fetch(s,{method:"POST",headers:{Accept:"application/json","Content-Type":"application/json"},credentials:a,body:JSON.stringify(Object.assign({signature:encode(o)},r))})};var State$1;!function(){if(!window.CustomEvent){function e(e,t){t=t||{bubbles:!1,cancelable:!1,detail:void 0};const n=document.createEvent("CustomEvent");return n.initCustomEvent(e,t.bubbles,t.cancelable,t.detail),n}e.prototype=window.Event.prototype,window.CustomEvent=e}}(),function(e){e[e.Pending=0]="Pending",e[e.Loaded=1]="Loaded",e[e.Failed=2]="Failed"}(State$1||(State$1={}));class Provider{constructor(e){this.timeoutSeconds=5,this.handlePixelEvent=e=>{switch(this.state){case State$1.Failed:break;case State$1.Pending:setTimeout((()=>this.handlePixelEvent(e)),100);break;case State$1.Loaded:this.onPixelEvent(e)}},this.watch=()=>{switch(this.state){case State$1.Loaded:case State$1.Failed:break;case State$1.Pending:this.isLoaded()?this.state=State$1.Loaded:this.isTimedOut()?this.state=State$1.Failed:setTimeout(this.watch,50)}},this.config=e,this.identifier&&this.identifier.length>0?(this.state=State$1.Pending,this.timeoutAt=new Date,this.timeoutAt.setSeconds(this.timeoutAt.getSeconds()+this.timeoutAfter()),this.injectPixel()):this.state=State$1.Failed}get identifier(){var e;return null===(e=this.config)||void 0===e?void 0:e.key}get pixelEvents(){var e;return null===(e=this.config)||void 0===e?void 0:e.pixel_events}injectPixel(){this.injectedAt||(this.injectedAt=new Date,this.inject(),this.watch())}inject(){const e=document.createElement("script");e.text=this.script,document.head.appendChild(e)}isTimedOut(){return+new Date>=+this.timeoutAt}timeoutAfter(){return this.timeoutSeconds}selectPixelEvents(e){if(Array.isArray(this.pixelEvents))return this.pixelEvents.filter((t=>"term-view"===t.trigger&&"visit"===e||(!(!["term-click","ad-view"].includes(t.trigger)||"ctr"!==e)||"ad-click"===t.trigger&&"click"===e)))}}class Facebook extends Provider{get script(){return`!function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s){if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function(){n.callMethod?n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)};if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version='2.0';n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0;t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0];s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window, document,'script','https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbevents.js');fbq('init', '${this.identifier}');`}onPixelEvent(e){this.selectPixelEvents(e).forEach((e=>{e&&(e.custom?window.fbq("trackCustom",e.event):window.fbq("track",e.event))}))}isLoaded(){return!!window.fbq}}class Outbrain extends Provider{get script(){return`!function(_window, _document) {var OB_ADV_ID = '${this.identifier}';if (_window.obApi) {var toArray = function(object) {return Object.prototype.toString.call(object) === '[object Array]' ? object : [object];};_window.obApi.marketerId = toArray(_window.obApi.marketerId).concat(toArray(OB_ADV_ID));return;}var api = _window.obApi = function() {api.dispatch ? api.dispatch.apply(api, arguments) : api.queue.push(arguments);};api.version = '1.1';api.loaded = true;api.marketerId = OB_ADV_ID;api.queue = [];var tag = _document.createElement('script');tag.async = true;tag.src = '//amplify.outbrain.com/cp/obtp.js';tag.type = 'text/javascript';var script = _document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0];script.parentNode.insertBefore(tag, script);}(window, document);`}onPixelEvent(e){this.selectPixelEvents(e).forEach((e=>{e&&window.obApi("track",e.event)}))}isLoaded(){return!!window.obApi}}class Revcontent extends Provider{get script(){return""}inject(){const e=document.createElement("script");e.src="https://assets.revcontent.com/master/rev.js",document.head.appendChild(e)}onPixelEvent(e){this.selectPixelEvents(e).forEach((e=>{e&&window.rev("event",e.event)}))}isLoaded(){return!!window.rev}}class Taboola extends Provider{get script(){return"window._tfa = window._tfa || [];!function (t, f, a, x) {if (!document.getElementById(x)) {t.async = 1;t.src = a;t.id=x;f.parentNode.insertBefore(t, f);}}(document.createElement('script'),document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0],'//cdn.taboola.com/libtrc/unip/1451879/tfa.js','tb_tfa_script');"}onPixelEvent(e){this.selectPixelEvents(e).forEach((e=>{e&&window._tfa.push({notify:"event",name:e.event,id:e.pixel_id})}))}isLoaded(){return Array.isArray(window._tfa)}}class Tiktok extends Provider{constructor(e,t){super(e),this.useAltTikTokEventsForAdsPlatformUser=t}get script(){return`!function (w, d, t) {w.TiktokAnalyticsObject=t;var ttq=w[t]=w[t]||[];ttq.methods=["page","track","identify","instances","debug","on","off","once","ready","alias","group","enableCookie","disableCookie"],ttq.setAndDefer=function(t,e){t[e]=function(){t.push([e].concat(Array.prototype.slice.call(arguments,0)))}};for(var i=0;i{e&&window.ttq.instance(this.identifier).track(e.event)}))}isLoaded(){return!!window.ttq}}const ADS_PARAM$1="?caf",MESSAGE_PREFIX="FSXDC,.aCS:",ALLOWED_ORIGINS=["https://www.google.com","https://www.adsensecustomsearchads.com","https://syndicatedsearch.goog","https://googleadservices.com"];class Pixels{static build(e){const t=unpackPHPArrayObject(e,"pixel_tracking_data");if(t)return t.useAltTikTokEventsForAdsPlatformUser=e.is_ads,new Pixels(t)}constructor(e){this.onPixelEvent=e=>{const{detail:{type:t}}=e;switch(t){case"visit":case"ctr":case"click":this.providers.forEach((e=>e.handlePixelEvent(t)))}},this.providers=[new Facebook(e.facebook),new Tiktok(e.tiktok,e.useAltTikTokEventsForAdsPlatformUser),new Taboola(e.taboola),new Revcontent(e.revcontent),new Outbrain(e.outbrain)]}listenForEvents(){document.addEventListener("pixel",(e=>{this.onPixelEvent(e)}));window.onmessage=e=>{const{origin:t,data:n}=e;ALLOWED_ORIGINS.includes(t)&&(null==n?void 0:n.startsWith(MESSAGE_PREFIX))&&window.location.search.startsWith(ADS_PARAM$1)&&document.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("pixel",{detail:{type:"click"}}))}}dispatchEvent(e){document.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("pixel",{detail:e}))}}var State;!function(e){e[e.Pending=0]="Pending",e[e.Loaded=1]="Loaded",e[e.Failure=2]="Failure",e[e.TimedOut=3]="TimedOut",e[e.Errored=4]="Errored"}(State||(State={}));const CAF_SCRIPT_SRC=`https://www.google.com/adsense/domains/caf.js?${GOOGLE_MV3_URL_PARAMS}`,TIMEOUT_SCRIPTS=Number(GOOGLE_CAF_TIMEOUT_SCRIPTS),TIMEOUT_CALLBACKS=Number(GOOGLE_CAF_TIMEOUT_CALLBACKS);class StateMachine{constructor(){this.state=State.Pending}transitionTo(e){this.state=e}transitionFromPendingTo(e){this.done||(this.state=e)}get loaded(){return this.state===State.Loaded}get timedOut(){return this.state===State.TimedOut}get done(){return this.state!==State.Pending}}class Ads{constructor(e,t){this.state={script:new StateMachine,blocks:new StateMachine},this.blocksLoaded=[],this.injectScriptTags=()=>__awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){return new Promise((e=>{const t=document.createElement("script");t.type="text/javascript",t.src=CAF_SCRIPT_SRC,t.addEventListener("load",(()=>e(!0))),t.addEventListener("error",(()=>e(!1))),document.body.appendChild(t),TIMEOUT_SCRIPTS>0&&setTimeout((()=>e(!1)),TIMEOUT_SCRIPTS)}))})),this.onPageLoaded=(e,t)=>{if(this.pageLoaded={requestAccepted:e,status:t},this.state.script.done)return;const n=null==t?void 0:t.error_code;n?(this.state.script.transitionTo(State.Failure),this.failureReason=`caf_pageloaderror_${n}`):this.state.script.transitionTo(State.Loaded)},this.onBlockLoaded=(e,t,n,i)=>{this.blocksLoaded.push({containerName:e,adsLoaded:t,isExperimentVariant:n,callbackOptions:i}),this.state.blocks.done||(t?this.state.blocks.transitionTo(State.Loaded):this.blocksLoaded.length>=this.blocks.length&&(this.state.blocks.transitionTo(State.Failure),this.failureReason=`caf_adloadfail_${e}`))},this.onTimeout=()=>{this.state.script.transitionFromPendingTo(State.TimedOut),this.state.blocks.transitionFromPendingTo(State.TimedOut)},this.blocks=e,this.options=t}get loaded(){return this.state.script.loaded&&!this.blocksLoaded.map((e=>e.adsLoaded)).includes(!1)}waitForBlocks(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){return new Promise((e=>{const t=()=>{const n=performance.now();if(this.state.blocks.done)return this.cafLoadTime=Math.round(n-this.cafStartTime),void e();const i=this.blocksLoaded.map((e=>e.adsLoaded));i.includes(!1)||i.length>=this.blocks.length?e():setTimeout(t,50)};t()}))}))}inject(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){try{const e=yield this.injectScriptTags();return this.cafStartTime=performance.now(),e&&void 0!==window.google?(new window.google.ads.domains.Caf(Object.assign(Object.assign({},this.options),{pageLoadedCallback:this.onPageLoaded,adLoadedCallback:this.onBlockLoaded}),...this.blocks),TIMEOUT_CALLBACKS>0&&setTimeout(this.onTimeout,TIMEOUT_CALLBACKS),yield new Promise((e=>{const t=()=>{this.state.script.done?e():setTimeout(t,10)};t()}))):void this.state.script.transitionTo(State.Failure)}catch(e){return void(this.error=e.toString())}}))}toCallbacks(){return{adLoadedCallback:this.blocksLoaded.slice(-1)[0],pageLoadedCallback:this.pageLoaded,cafTimedOut:this.state.script.timedOut||this.state.blocks.timedOut,cafLoadedMs:this.cafLoadTime,googleAdsFailure:!!this.failureReason}}toContext(){const e={cafScriptWasLoaded:this.state.script.loaded,cafScriptLoadTime:this.cafLoadTime,callbacks:this.toCallbacks};return this.error&&(e.js_error={message:this.error}),this.state.script.loaded||(e.zeroclick={reason:"googleAdsFailure"}),e}mockFailedState(){this.state.blocks.transitionTo(State.Failure),this.state.script.transitionTo(State.Failure)}}class TagManager{constructor(e){this.injected=!1,this.identifier=e}inject(){if(this.injected)return;if(!this.identifier)return;if("TEST"===this.identifier)return;const e=document.createElement("script");e.setAttribute("src",`https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=${this.identifier}`),document.head.appendChild(e),this.track(),this.injected=!0}track(){this.push("js",new Date),this.push("config",this.identifier)}push(e,t){window.dataLayer||(window.dataLayer=[]),window.dataLayer.push(arguments)}}const ADS_PARAM="caf",ADS_TRACKING_URL="_tr",BLOCKS_TYPE="ads",BLOCKS_CONTAINER="rs",KNOWN_CAF_PARAMS=["caf","query","afdToken","pcsa","nb","nm","nx","ny","is","clkt"];class Google{static build({pageOptions:e,preferredLanguage:t,blocks:n,googleAnalytics:i},s,a,o){let r={};e&&(r=Object.assign({},e),r.hl||(r.hl=t));let d=null==e?void 0:e.resultsPageBaseUrl;d||(d=window.location.origin);return new Google(s.uuid,n,r,i,d,o)}constructor(e,t,n,i,s,a){this._blocks=t,this._pageOptions=n,this.uuid=e,this._baseURL=new URL(s),this._signature=a,this.ads=new Ads(this.blocks,this.pageOptions),this.tagManager=new TagManager(i)}injectTagManager(){this.tagManager.inject()}injectAds(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){yield this.ads.inject()}))}waitForBlocks(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){return this.ads.waitForBlocks()}))}get blocks(){return(this._blocks||[]).filter((e=>this.wantsToServeAds?e.type===BLOCKS_TYPE:e.container===BLOCKS_CONTAINER)).map((e=>{const t=this.baseURL;new URLSearchParams(window.location.search).forEach(((e,n)=>{t.searchParams.has(n)||t.searchParams.append(n,e)}));const n=Object.assign({},e);if(n.resultsPageBaseUrl=t.toString(),this.wantsToServeAds){const e=new URLSearchParams;e.append("click","true"),e.append("session",this.uuid);const t=Object.assign({},this._signature);delete t.ad_loaded_callback,delete t.caf_loaded_ms,delete t.caf_timed_out,delete t.flex_rule,delete t.frame,delete t.js_error,delete t.no_ads_redirect,delete t.page_headers,delete t.page_request,delete t.page_loaded_callback,delete t.popup,delete t.screen_resolution,delete t.user_has_ad_blocker,delete t.user_preference,delete t.user_supports_darkmode,delete t.user_using_darkmode,delete t.zeroclick,e.append("signature",encode(t)),n.clicktrackUrl=`${TRACKING_DOMAIN}${ADS_TRACKING_URL}?${e.toString()}`}return n}))}get baseURL(){const e=new URL(this._baseURL.origin);return e.searchParams.append(ADS_PARAM,"1"),this._baseURL.searchParams.forEach(((t,n)=>{e.searchParams.append(n,t)})),e}get pageOptions(){const e=Object.assign({},this._pageOptions);return Object.keys(this._pageOptions).forEach((t=>{t.startsWith("bodis")&&delete e[t]})),e}get cannotLoadAds(){return!this.ads.loaded}get wantsToServeAds(){return new URLSearchParams(window.location.search).has(ADS_PARAM)}get adsMode(){return this.ads.loaded&&this.wantsToServeAds}get adsReady(){return this.wantsToServeAds&&!this.cannotLoadAds}get noAdsRedirectUrl(){const e=new URLSearchParams(window.location.search);return KNOWN_CAF_PARAMS.forEach((t=>e.delete(t))),`${window.location.origin}?${e.toString()}`}get callbacks(){return this.ads.toCallbacks()}toContext(){return Object.assign({blocks:this.blocks,pageOptions:this.pageOptions},this.ads.toContext())}}class CookieConsentManager{constructor(){this.injectScriptTag=()=>__awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){return new Promise((e=>{const t=document.createElement("script");t.setAttribute("src",COOKIE_CONSENT_JS_URL),t.addEventListener("load",(()=>this.awaitConsent(e))),t.addEventListener("error",(()=>e(!1))),document.head.appendChild(t)}))}))}inject(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.injected||!COOKIE_CONSENT_JS_URL||isLocal()||(this.injected=yield this.injectScriptTag())}))}awaitConsent(e){let t=0;const n=setInterval((()=>{t+=1,20===t&&(clearInterval(n),e(!0)),void 0!==window.__tcfapi&&(window.addEventListener("ConsentActivity",(t=>{const{detail:{status:n}}=t;n&&e(!0)})),clearInterval(n))}),50)}}class App{main(){var e,t;return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){if(this.parkResponse=decode(),this.findDomainResponse=yield getFindDomain(),!this.findDomainResponse)throw new Error("Domain failed to load.");this.pixels=Pixels.build(this.findDomainResponse),null===(e=this.pixels)||void 0===e||e.listenForEvents(),this.adblock=new Adblock,yield this.adblock.inject(),this.google=Google.build(this.findDomainResponse,this.parkResponse,this.adblock,buildSignature({context:this.context,callbacks:null===(t=this.google)||void 0===t?void 0:t.callbacks},"click")),this.google.injectTagManager();const n=Parking.build(this.findDomainResponse,this.google);Render.prerender(n),this.cookieConsentManager=new CookieConsentManager,yield this.cookieConsentManager.inject();let i=Failed.cannotPark(this.findDomainResponse);if(i)return void(yield this.transitionToFailed(i,n));yield this.google.injectAds();let s=Disabled.build(this.findDomainResponse,this.adblock.state);if(s)return void(yield this.transitionToDisabled(s,n));const a=this.adblock.hasAdblocker();a&&this.adblock.handleAdblocked();const o=Sales.build(this.findDomainResponse);if(o)return void(yield this.transitionToSales(o));this.eligibleForZeroClick&&(this.zeroClickResponse=yield getZeroClick(this.context));const r=Redirect.build(this.findDomainResponse,this.zeroClickResponse,this.google);if(r)yield this.transitionToRedirect(r);else{if(a)return s=Disabled.build(this.findDomainResponse,this.adblock.state),void(yield this.transitionToDisabled(s,n));i=Failed.noSponsors(this.google),i?yield this.transitionToFailed(i,n):yield this.transitionToParking(n)}}))}transitionToParking(e){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.state=e,Render.template(e),Render.revealPage(),yield this.google.waitForBlocks(),yield this.track()}))}transitionToRedirect(e){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.state=e;const t=this.track();Render.revealPage(),yield waiter(e.delay,(e=>Render.loading(e))),yield t,window.location.href=e.url,log(`➡ Redirecting [${e.url}]`)}))}transitionToFailed(e,t){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.state=e,Render.message(e.message),Render.injectJS(t.javascript),Render.revealPage(),yield this.track()}))}transitionToSales(e){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.state=e,e.init(this.context),yield this.track()}))}transitionToDisabled(e,t){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.state=e,Render.message(e.message),Render.injectJS(t.javascript),Render.revealPage(),yield this.track()}))}track(){var e;return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){if(!this.state.track)return Promise.resolve();try{const t=this.state.trackingType;return null===(e=this.pixels)||void 0===e||e.dispatchEvent({type:t}),trackVisit({context:this.context,callbacks:this.google.callbacks},t)}catch(e){return}}))}get eligibleForZeroClick(){const{cannotPark:e,canZeroClick:t,zeroClick:n}=this.findDomainResponse,{cannotLoadAds:i,wantsToServeAds:s}=this.google;return this.adblock.state!==Blocking.BLOCKED&&(!!t&&(!!e||(!(!i||s)||!!(null==n?void 0:n.reason))))}get context(){var e,t,n,i;const s=this.findDomainResponse,a=this.parkResponse,o=null===(e=this.state)||void 0===e?void 0:e.toContext(),r=null===(t=this.adblock)||void 0===t?void 0:t.toContext(),d=null===(n=this.google)||void 0===n?void 0:n.toContext(),c=browserState(),l=Object.assign(Object.assign({},null===(i=this.findDomainResponse)||void 0===i?void 0:i.zeroClick),this.zeroClickResponse);return Object.assign(Object.assign(Object.assign(Object.assign(Object.assign(Object.assign(Object.assign({app_version:APP_VERSION},s),a),r),d),o),c),{zeroClick:l})}init(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){try{window.__parkour=this,yield this.main()}catch(e){console.error("app",e);const t=Failed.fromError(e);this.state=t,Render.message(t.message),Render.revealPage()}}))}}(new App).init(),exports.App=App}));