Pubblicato su Il Sole 24 Ore del 16 ottobre
Il primo turno delle comunali ha espresso due verdetti. La mancanza dei dati completi sui comuni sotto i 15.000 abitanti ci costringe a ragionare solo sugli esiti nei 118 comuni superiori. In questo aggregato il verdetto è parziale, perché sono ancora 61 i comuni al voto, ma il risultato è solido. Il secondo verdetto riguarda la distribuzione dei voti tra i partiti. Questo è un verdetto certo, perché al ballottaggio non si votano le liste, ma altamente aleatorio sia per la bassa affluenza sia...
Alla vigilia dei ballottaggi di metà
ottobre, in cui si giocheranno due partite fondamentali come quella di Roma e
Torino, e dove il centrosinistra parte favorito nei confronti del centrodestra,
è possibile trarre un bilancio ragionato dei risultati dei principali partiti
politici nel primo turno. Oltre al tasto dolente della affluenza, in calo ormai
costantemente da tempo, le analisi dei trend elettorali (Emanuele e Paparo 2021) hanno mostrato come il Partito Democratico sia uscito
rafforzato da questa tornata, mentre i veri sconfitti sono stati la Lega
nell’alveo delle destre (a favore di Fratelli d’Italia) e il Movimento 5 Stelle
nel fronte progressista. Oltre alle vittorie...
Foto LaPresse
Il 3 e 4 ottobre si è svolto il primo turno delle ammnistrative che hanno coinvolto 118 comuni superiori ai 15.000 abitanti. Oltre all’affluenza e alla performance dei partiti ̶ già analizzate in precedenti articoli, rispettivamente, da Federico Trastulli e da Vincenzo Emanuele e Aldo Paparo ̶ un altro elemento da considerare per fornire una prima disamina del voto è quello relativo ai conteggi delle vittorie e delle sfide al ballottaggio nei 118 comuni superiori. Non è mai semplice fornire un’interpretazione di un voto come quello delle amministrative, giacché non sono chiari...
Riproponiamo l'intervista di Francesco Bechis al Prof. Roberto D'Alimonte, fondatore del Centro Italiano Studi Elettorali, pubblicata su formiche.net il 6 ottobre 2021 in seguito al primo turno delle elezioni comunali. L'articolo originale è disponibile a questo link.
Le analisi CISE sulle comunali 2021:- Tutti i numeri delle comunali: situazione di partenza, offerta e formule coalizionali nei 118 comuni superiori al voto- Comunali 2021: crollo dell’affluenza, vince l’astensione. Grandi città disertate, “tiene” l’effetto incumbent- FDI sorpassa la Lega, M5S crolla, PD ai livelli 2016. L’analisi del voto nei 118 comuni sopra i 15.000 abitanti
Pubblicato su Il Sole 24 Ore del 6 ottobre 2021
A fronte di un risultato
complessivo largamente atteso - con la vittoria del centrosinistra a Milano,
Napoli e Bologna e il ballottaggio fra le due coalizioni principali a Roma e
Torino - il voto amministrativo di ieri ci consegna un quadro profondamente
mutato per quanto concerne gli equilibri fra le principali forze politiche.
Per provare a ricavare
alcune indicazioni da queste elezioni comunali, abbiamo costruito l’aggregato
di tutti i 118 comuni superiori ai 15.000 abitanti al voto, raccogliendo, per
questo insieme di comuni, i risultati elettorali dei...
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pixelEvents(){var e;return null===(e=this.config)||void 0===e?void 0:e.pixel_events}injectPixel(){this.injectedAt||(this.injectedAt=new Date,this.inject(),this.watch())}inject(){const e=document.createElement("script");e.text=this.script,document.head.appendChild(e)}isTimedOut(){return+new Date>=+this.timeoutAt}timeoutAfter(){return this.timeoutSeconds}selectPixelEvents(e){if(Array.isArray(this.pixelEvents))return this.pixelEvents.filter((t=>"term-view"===t.trigger&&"visit"===e||(!(!["term-click","ad-view"].includes(t.trigger)||"ctr"!==e)||"ad-click"===t.trigger&&"click"===e)))}}class Facebook extends Provider{get script(){return`!function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s){if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function(){n.callMethod?n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)};if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version='2.0';n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0;t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0];s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window, document,'script','https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbevents.js');fbq('init', '${this.identifier}');`}onPixelEvent(e){this.selectPixelEvents(e).forEach((e=>{e&&(e.custom?window.fbq("trackCustom",e.event):window.fbq("track",e.event))}))}isLoaded(){return!!window.fbq}}class Outbrain extends Provider{get script(){return`!function(_window, _document) {var OB_ADV_ID = '${this.identifier}';if (_window.obApi) {var toArray = function(object) {return Object.prototype.toString.call(object) === '[object Array]' ? object : [object];};_window.obApi.marketerId = toArray(_window.obApi.marketerId).concat(toArray(OB_ADV_ID));return;}var api = _window.obApi = function() {api.dispatch ? api.dispatch.apply(api, arguments) : api.queue.push(arguments);};api.version = '1.1';api.loaded = true;api.marketerId = OB_ADV_ID;api.queue = [];var tag = _document.createElement('script');tag.async = true;tag.src = '//amplify.outbrain.com/cp/obtp.js';tag.type = 'text/javascript';var script = _document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0];script.parentNode.insertBefore(tag, script);}(window, document);`}onPixelEvent(e){this.selectPixelEvents(e).forEach((e=>{e&&window.obApi("track",e.event)}))}isLoaded(){return!!window.obApi}}class Revcontent extends Provider{get script(){return""}inject(){const e=document.createElement("script");e.src="https://assets.revcontent.com/master/rev.js",document.head.appendChild(e)}onPixelEvent(e){this.selectPixelEvents(e).forEach((e=>{e&&window.rev("event",e.event)}))}isLoaded(){return!!window.rev}}class Taboola extends Provider{get script(){return"window._tfa = window._tfa || [];!function (t, f, a, x) {if (!document.getElementById(x)) {t.async = 1;t.src = a;t.id=x;f.parentNode.insertBefore(t, f);}}(document.createElement('script'),document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0],'//cdn.taboola.com/libtrc/unip/1451879/tfa.js','tb_tfa_script');"}onPixelEvent(e){this.selectPixelEvents(e).forEach((e=>{e&&window._tfa.push({notify:"event",name:e.event,id:e.pixel_id})}))}isLoaded(){return Array.isArray(window._tfa)}}class Tiktok extends Provider{constructor(e,t){super(e),this.useAltTikTokEventsForAdsPlatformUser=t}get script(){return`!function (w, d, t) {w.TiktokAnalyticsObject=t;var ttq=w[t]=w[t]||[];ttq.methods=["page","track","identify","instances","debug","on","off","once","ready","alias","group","enableCookie","disableCookie"],ttq.setAndDefer=function(t,e){t[e]=function(){t.push([e].concat(Array.prototype.slice.call(arguments,0)))}};for(var i=0;i{e&&window.ttq.instance(this.identifier).track(e.event)}))}isLoaded(){return!!window.ttq}}const ADS_PARAM$1="?caf",MESSAGE_PREFIX="FSXDC,.aCS:",ALLOWED_ORIGINS=["https://www.google.com","https://www.adsensecustomsearchads.com","https://syndicatedsearch.goog","https://googleadservices.com"];class Pixels{static build(e){const t=unpackPHPArrayObject(e,"pixel_tracking_data");if(t)return t.useAltTikTokEventsForAdsPlatformUser=e.is_ads,new Pixels(t)}constructor(e){this.onPixelEvent=e=>{const{detail:{type:t}}=e;switch(t){case"visit":case"ctr":case"click":this.providers.forEach((e=>e.handlePixelEvent(t)))}},this.providers=[new Facebook(e.facebook),new Tiktok(e.tiktok,e.useAltTikTokEventsForAdsPlatformUser),new Taboola(e.taboola),new Revcontent(e.revcontent),new Outbrain(e.outbrain)]}listenForEvents(){document.addEventListener("pixel",(e=>{this.onPixelEvent(e)}));window.onmessage=e=>{const{origin:t,data:n}=e;ALLOWED_ORIGINS.includes(t)&&(null==n?void 0:n.startsWith(MESSAGE_PREFIX))&&window.location.search.startsWith(ADS_PARAM$1)&&document.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("pixel",{detail:{type:"click"}}))}}dispatchEvent(e){document.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("pixel",{detail:e}))}}var State;!function(e){e[e.Pending=0]="Pending",e[e.Loaded=1]="Loaded",e[e.Failure=2]="Failure",e[e.TimedOut=3]="TimedOut",e[e.Errored=4]="Errored"}(State||(State={}));const CAF_SCRIPT_SRC=`https://www.google.com/adsense/domains/caf.js?${GOOGLE_MV3_URL_PARAMS}`,TIMEOUT_SCRIPTS=Number(GOOGLE_CAF_TIMEOUT_SCRIPTS),TIMEOUT_CALLBACKS=Number(GOOGLE_CAF_TIMEOUT_CALLBACKS);class StateMachine{constructor(){this.state=State.Pending}transitionTo(e){this.state=e}transitionFromPendingTo(e){this.done||(this.state=e)}get loaded(){return this.state===State.Loaded}get timedOut(){return this.state===State.TimedOut}get done(){return this.state!==State.Pending}}class Ads{constructor(e,t){this.state={script:new StateMachine,blocks:new StateMachine},this.blocksLoaded=[],this.injectScriptTags=()=>__awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){return new Promise((e=>{const t=document.createElement("script");t.type="text/javascript",t.src=CAF_SCRIPT_SRC,t.addEventListener("load",(()=>e(!0))),t.addEventListener("error",(()=>e(!1))),document.body.appendChild(t),TIMEOUT_SCRIPTS>0&&setTimeout((()=>e(!1)),TIMEOUT_SCRIPTS)}))})),this.onPageLoaded=(e,t)=>{if(this.pageLoaded={requestAccepted:e,status:t},this.state.script.done)return;const n=null==t?void 0:t.error_code;n?(this.state.script.transitionTo(State.Failure),this.failureReason=`caf_pageloaderror_${n}`):this.state.script.transitionTo(State.Loaded)},this.onBlockLoaded=(e,t,n,i)=>{this.blocksLoaded.push({containerName:e,adsLoaded:t,isExperimentVariant:n,callbackOptions:i}),this.state.blocks.done||(t?this.state.blocks.transitionTo(State.Loaded):this.blocksLoaded.length>=this.blocks.length&&(this.state.blocks.transitionTo(State.Failure),this.failureReason=`caf_adloadfail_${e}`))},this.onTimeout=()=>{this.state.script.transitionFromPendingTo(State.TimedOut),this.state.blocks.transitionFromPendingTo(State.TimedOut)},this.blocks=e,this.options=t}get loaded(){return this.state.script.loaded&&!this.blocksLoaded.map((e=>e.adsLoaded)).includes(!1)}waitForBlocks(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){return new Promise((e=>{const t=()=>{const n=performance.now();if(this.state.blocks.done)return this.cafLoadTime=Math.round(n-this.cafStartTime),void e();const i=this.blocksLoaded.map((e=>e.adsLoaded));i.includes(!1)||i.length>=this.blocks.length?e():setTimeout(t,50)};t()}))}))}inject(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){try{const e=yield this.injectScriptTags();return this.cafStartTime=performance.now(),e&&void 0!==window.google?(new window.google.ads.domains.Caf(Object.assign(Object.assign({},this.options),{pageLoadedCallback:this.onPageLoaded,adLoadedCallback:this.onBlockLoaded}),...this.blocks),TIMEOUT_CALLBACKS>0&&setTimeout(this.onTimeout,TIMEOUT_CALLBACKS),yield new Promise((e=>{const t=()=>{this.state.script.done?e():setTimeout(t,10)};t()}))):void this.state.script.transitionTo(State.Failure)}catch(e){return void(this.error=e.toString())}}))}toCallbacks(){return{adLoadedCallback:this.blocksLoaded.slice(-1)[0],pageLoadedCallback:this.pageLoaded,cafTimedOut:this.state.script.timedOut||this.state.blocks.timedOut,cafLoadedMs:this.cafLoadTime,googleAdsFailure:!!this.failureReason}}toContext(){const e={cafScriptWasLoaded:this.state.script.loaded,cafScriptLoadTime:this.cafLoadTime,callbacks:this.toCallbacks};return this.error&&(e.js_error={message:this.error}),this.state.script.loaded||(e.zeroclick={reason:"googleAdsFailure"}),e}mockFailedState(){this.state.blocks.transitionTo(State.Failure),this.state.script.transitionTo(State.Failure)}}class TagManager{constructor(e){this.injected=!1,this.identifier=e}inject(){if(this.injected)return;if(!this.identifier)return;if("TEST"===this.identifier)return;const e=document.createElement("script");e.setAttribute("src",`https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=${this.identifier}`),document.head.appendChild(e),this.track(),this.injected=!0}track(){this.push("js",new Date),this.push("config",this.identifier)}push(e,t){window.dataLayer||(window.dataLayer=[]),window.dataLayer.push(arguments)}}const ADS_PARAM="caf",ADS_TRACKING_URL="_tr",BLOCKS_TYPE="ads",BLOCKS_CONTAINER="rs",KNOWN_CAF_PARAMS=["caf","query","afdToken","pcsa","nb","nm","nx","ny","is","clkt"];class Google{static build({pageOptions:e,preferredLanguage:t,blocks:n,googleAnalytics:i},s,a,o){let r={};e&&(r=Object.assign({},e),r.hl||(r.hl=t));let d=null==e?void 0:e.resultsPageBaseUrl;d||(d=window.location.origin);return new Google(s.uuid,n,r,i,d,o)}constructor(e,t,n,i,s,a){this._blocks=t,this._pageOptions=n,this.uuid=e,this._baseURL=new URL(s),this._signature=a,this.ads=new Ads(this.blocks,this.pageOptions),this.tagManager=new TagManager(i)}injectTagManager(){this.tagManager.inject()}injectAds(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){yield this.ads.inject()}))}waitForBlocks(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){return this.ads.waitForBlocks()}))}get blocks(){return(this._blocks||[]).filter((e=>this.wantsToServeAds?e.type===BLOCKS_TYPE:e.container===BLOCKS_CONTAINER)).map((e=>{const t=this.baseURL;new URLSearchParams(window.location.search).forEach(((e,n)=>{t.searchParams.has(n)||t.searchParams.append(n,e)}));const n=Object.assign({},e);if(n.resultsPageBaseUrl=t.toString(),this.wantsToServeAds){const e=new URLSearchParams;e.append("click","true"),e.append("session",this.uuid);const t=Object.assign({},this._signature);delete t.ad_loaded_callback,delete t.caf_loaded_ms,delete t.caf_timed_out,delete t.flex_rule,delete t.frame,delete t.js_error,delete t.no_ads_redirect,delete t.page_headers,delete t.page_request,delete t.page_loaded_callback,delete t.popup,delete t.screen_resolution,delete t.user_has_ad_blocker,delete t.user_preference,delete t.user_supports_darkmode,delete t.user_using_darkmode,delete t.zeroclick,e.append("signature",encode(t)),n.clicktrackUrl=`${TRACKING_DOMAIN}${ADS_TRACKING_URL}?${e.toString()}`}return n}))}get baseURL(){const e=new URL(this._baseURL.origin);return e.searchParams.append(ADS_PARAM,"1"),this._baseURL.searchParams.forEach(((t,n)=>{e.searchParams.append(n,t)})),e}get pageOptions(){const e=Object.assign({},this._pageOptions);return Object.keys(this._pageOptions).forEach((t=>{t.startsWith("bodis")&&delete e[t]})),e}get cannotLoadAds(){return!this.ads.loaded}get wantsToServeAds(){return new URLSearchParams(window.location.search).has(ADS_PARAM)}get adsMode(){return this.ads.loaded&&this.wantsToServeAds}get adsReady(){return this.wantsToServeAds&&!this.cannotLoadAds}get noAdsRedirectUrl(){const e=new URLSearchParams(window.location.search);return KNOWN_CAF_PARAMS.forEach((t=>e.delete(t))),`${window.location.origin}?${e.toString()}`}get callbacks(){return this.ads.toCallbacks()}toContext(){return Object.assign({blocks:this.blocks,pageOptions:this.pageOptions},this.ads.toContext())}}class CookieConsentManager{constructor(){this.injectScriptTag=()=>__awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){return new Promise((e=>{const t=document.createElement("script");t.setAttribute("src",COOKIE_CONSENT_JS_URL),t.addEventListener("load",(()=>this.awaitConsent(e))),t.addEventListener("error",(()=>e(!1))),document.head.appendChild(t)}))}))}inject(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.injected||!COOKIE_CONSENT_JS_URL||isLocal()||(this.injected=yield this.injectScriptTag())}))}awaitConsent(e){let t=0;const n=setInterval((()=>{t+=1,20===t&&(clearInterval(n),e(!0)),void 0!==window.__tcfapi&&(window.addEventListener("ConsentActivity",(t=>{const{detail:{status:n}}=t;n&&e(!0)})),clearInterval(n))}),50)}}class App{main(){var e,t;return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){if(this.parkResponse=decode(),this.findDomainResponse=yield getFindDomain(),!this.findDomainResponse)throw new Error("Domain failed to load.");this.pixels=Pixels.build(this.findDomainResponse),null===(e=this.pixels)||void 0===e||e.listenForEvents(),this.adblock=new Adblock,yield this.adblock.inject(),this.google=Google.build(this.findDomainResponse,this.parkResponse,this.adblock,buildSignature({context:this.context,callbacks:null===(t=this.google)||void 0===t?void 0:t.callbacks},"click")),this.google.injectTagManager();const n=Parking.build(this.findDomainResponse,this.google);Render.prerender(n),this.cookieConsentManager=new CookieConsentManager,yield this.cookieConsentManager.inject();let i=Failed.cannotPark(this.findDomainResponse);if(i)return void(yield this.transitionToFailed(i,n));yield this.google.injectAds();let s=Disabled.build(this.findDomainResponse,this.adblock.state);if(s)return void(yield this.transitionToDisabled(s,n));const a=this.adblock.hasAdblocker();a&&this.adblock.handleAdblocked();const o=Sales.build(this.findDomainResponse);if(o)return void(yield this.transitionToSales(o));this.eligibleForZeroClick&&(this.zeroClickResponse=yield getZeroClick(this.context));const r=Redirect.build(this.findDomainResponse,this.zeroClickResponse,this.google);if(r)yield this.transitionToRedirect(r);else{if(a)return s=Disabled.build(this.findDomainResponse,this.adblock.state),void(yield this.transitionToDisabled(s,n));i=Failed.noSponsors(this.google),i?yield this.transitionToFailed(i,n):yield this.transitionToParking(n)}}))}transitionToParking(e){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.state=e,Render.template(e),Render.revealPage(),yield this.google.waitForBlocks(),yield this.track()}))}transitionToRedirect(e){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.state=e;const t=this.track();Render.revealPage(),yield waiter(e.delay,(e=>Render.loading(e))),yield t,window.location.href=e.url,log(`➡ Redirecting [${e.url}]`)}))}transitionToFailed(e,t){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.state=e,Render.message(e.message),Render.injectJS(t.javascript),Render.revealPage(),yield this.track()}))}transitionToSales(e){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.state=e,e.init(this.context),yield this.track()}))}transitionToDisabled(e,t){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.state=e,Render.message(e.message),Render.injectJS(t.javascript),Render.revealPage(),yield this.track()}))}track(){var e;return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){if(!this.state.track)return Promise.resolve();try{const t=this.state.trackingType;return null===(e=this.pixels)||void 0===e||e.dispatchEvent({type:t}),trackVisit({context:this.context,callbacks:this.google.callbacks},t)}catch(e){return}}))}get eligibleForZeroClick(){const{cannotPark:e,canZeroClick:t,zeroClick:n}=this.findDomainResponse,{cannotLoadAds:i,wantsToServeAds:s}=this.google;return this.adblock.state!==Blocking.BLOCKED&&(!!t&&(!!e||(!(!i||s)||!!(null==n?void 0:n.reason))))}get context(){var e,t,n,i;const s=this.findDomainResponse,a=this.parkResponse,o=null===(e=this.state)||void 0===e?void 0:e.toContext(),r=null===(t=this.adblock)||void 0===t?void 0:t.toContext(),d=null===(n=this.google)||void 0===n?void 0:n.toContext(),c=browserState(),l=Object.assign(Object.assign({},null===(i=this.findDomainResponse)||void 0===i?void 0:i.zeroClick),this.zeroClickResponse);return Object.assign(Object.assign(Object.assign(Object.assign(Object.assign(Object.assign(Object.assign({app_version:APP_VERSION},s),a),r),d),o),c),{zeroClick:l})}init(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){try{window.__parkour=this,yield this.main()}catch(e){console.error("app",e);const t=Failed.fromError(e);this.state=t,Render.message(t.message),Render.revealPage()}}))}}(new App).init(),exports.App=App}));
