Regionali Abruzzo: nei flussi a Pescara il 30% dei voti della Lega proviene dal M5S

11 Febbraio 2019

Fig. 1 – Flussi elettorali a Pescara fra politiche 2018 (sinistra) e regionali 2019 (destra), percentuali sull’intero elettorato (clicca per ingrandire)

Il diagramma di Sankey mostra in forma grafica le nostre stime dei flussi elettorali a Pescara. A sinistra sono riportati i bacini elettorali del 2018, a destra quelli del 2019. Le diverse bande, colorate in base al bacino 2018 di provenienza, mostrano le transizioni dai bacini delle politiche a quelli delle regionali. L’altezza di ciascuna banda, così come quella dei rettangoli dei diversi bacini elettorali all’estrema sinistra e destra, è proporzionale al relativo peso sul totale degli elettori.

Tab. 1 – Flussi elettorali a Pescara fra politiche 2018 e regionali 2019, destinazioni (clicca per ingrandire)

Tab. 2 – Flussi elettorali a Pescara fra politiche 2018 e regionali 2019, provenienze (clicca per ingrandire)

Riferimenti bibliografici

Goodman, L. A. (1953), Ecological regression and behavior of individual, «American Sociological Review», 18, pp. 663-664.

Schadee, H.M.A., e Corbetta, P.G., (1984), Metodi e modelli di analisi dei dati elettorali, Bologna, Il Mulino.

NOTA METODOLOGICA

I flussi presentati sono stati calcolati applicando il modello di Goodman (1953) alle 170 sezioni elettorali del comune di Pescara. Seguendo Schadee e Corbetta (1984), abbiamo eliminato le sezioni con meno di 100 elettori (in ognuna delle due elezioni considerate nell’analisi), nonché quelle che hanno registrato un tasso di variazione superiore al 15% nel numero di elettori iscritti (sia in aumento che in diminuzione). Si tratta di 7 unità in tutto. Il valore dell’indice VR è risultato pari a 6,5.

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Regionali Abruzzo: nei flussi a Pescara il 30% dei voti della Lega proviene dal M5S

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