New method shows unexpected importance of economic issues: article now officially published

22 Giugno 2021

A new article by Davide Angelucci and Lorenzo De Sio, titled Issue characterization of electoral change (and how recent elections in Western Europe were won on economic issues), has been just published by the Italian Journal of Electoral Studies. The article is now officially av ailable here.

Leveraging the issue-rich ICCP dataset (data and documentation is openly accessible and available free of charge through the ICCP and GESIS websites), the article investigates the issue determinants of vote change in six important European countries between 2017 and 2018 (Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, UK). The article makes innovative contributions in three aspects:

1) Rather than modelling vote choice, we model vote change, at the individual level, from one party to another. In doing so, the article indeed provides a plausible account of the determinants of the voting shifts behind electoral victories and defeats.

2) By relying on a unique dataset that includes voter opinions on a large number (30+) of actual campaign issues of each of the six countries covered by the study, we identify actual issue determinants of voting shifts, thus providing an accurate picture of the problem and policy priorities that drive electoral results.

3) This is particularly relevant in relation to the specific empirical application of this new design: the turning point elections that took place in these countries in 2017-18 (right after Brexit and the election of Donald Trump). While the literature has mostly focused on the emphasis by challenger parties on “cultural” issues (such as immigration and the EU), we find that the individual-level determinants of vote shifts are dominantly economic, and mostly related to positions that are protective of the welfare state. This casts a new light on the interpretation of recent elections in Western Europe.

To cite the article:

Angelucci D., De Sio L. (2021), Issue characterization of electoral change (and how recent elections in Western Europe were won on economic issues), Quaderni dell’Osservatorio elettorale – Italian Journal of Electoral Studies (QOE-IJES), Just Accepted.

Davide Angelucci

Davide Angelucci ha conseguito un dottorato di ricerca presso l'Università di Siena ed è attualmente assegnista di ricerca presso il CISE, alla LUISS – Guido Carli. I suoi interessi di ricerca si concentrano sul comportamento e sulla partecipazione politica. Attualmente sta lavorando su class-voting e diseguaglianze politiche.

Lorenzo De Sio

Lorenzo De Sio è professore ordinario di Scienza Politica presso la LUISS Guido Carli, e direttore del CISE - Centro Italiano di Studi Elettorali. Già Jean Monnet Fellow presso lo European University Institute, Visiting Research Fellow presso la University of California, Irvine, e Campbell National Fellow presso la Stanford University, è membro di ITANES (Italian National Election Studies), ha partecipato a vari progetti di ricerca internazionali, tra cui “The True European Voter”(ESF-COST Action IS0806), the “EU Profiler” (2009) e EUandI (2014), e di recente ha dato vita al progetto ICCP (Issue Competition Comparative Project). I suoi interessi di ricerca attuali vertono sull'analisi quantitativa dei comportamenti di voto e delle strategie di partito in prospettiva comparata, con particolare attenzione al ruolo delle issues. Tra le sue pubblicazioni, accanto a vari volumi in italiano e in inglese, ci sono articoli apparsi su American Political Science Review, Comparative Political Studies, Electoral Studies, Party Politics, West European Politics, South European Society and Politics, oltre che su numerose riviste scientifiche italiane. Clicca qui per accedere al profilo su IRIS.

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New method shows unexpected importance of economic issues: article now officially published

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