Autore: Redazione CISE

  • Turning Out to Vote: The Costs of Finding and Getting to the Polling Place

    Segnalazione bibliografica.

    American Political Science Review (2011), 105: 115-134

    Autori: Henry E. Brady, John E. McNulty

    Abstract

    Could changing the locations of polling places affect the outcome of an election by increasing the costs of voting for some and decreasing them for others? The consolidation of voting precincts in Los Angeles County during California’s 2003 gubernatorial recall election provides a natural experiment for studying how changing polling places influences voter turnout. Overall turnout decreased by a substantial 1.85 percentage points: A drop in polling place turnout of 3.03 percentage points was partially offset by an increase in absentee voting of 1.18 percentage points. Both transportation and search costs caused these changes. Although there is no evidence that the Los Angeles Registrar of Voters changed more polling locations for those registered with one party than for those registered with another, the changing of polling places still had a small partisan effect because those registered as Democrats were more sensitive to changes in costs than those registered as Republicans. The effects were small enough to allay worries about significant electoral consequences in this instance (e.g., the partisan effect might be decisive in only about one in two hundred contested House elections), but large enough to make it possible for someone to affect outcomes by more extensive manipulation of polling place locations.

    Full text: https://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=8239866&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0003055410000596

  • Costly Jobs: Trade-related Layoffs, Government Compensation, and Voting in U.S. Elections

    Segnalazione bibliografica.

    American Political Science Review (2011), 105: 166-188

    Autore: Otam Margalit

    Abstract

    Does globalization’s impact on the labor market affect how people vote? I address this question using a new dataset based on plant-level data that measures the impact of foreign competition on the U.S. workforce over an 8-year period. Analyzing change in the president’s vote share, I find that voters were substantially more sensitive to the loss of local jobs when it resulted from foreign competition, particularly from offshoring, than to job losses caused by other factors. Yet, I also find that between 2000 and 2004, the anti-incumbent effect of trade-related job losses was smaller in areas where the government certified more of the harmed workers to receive special job training and income assistance. The findings have implications for understanding the impact of international economic integration on voting behavior, as well as for assessing the electoral effect of government programs designed to compensate the losers from globalization.

    Full text:  https://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=8239848&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S000305541000050X


  • Populism and the Italian right

    Segnalazione bibliografica.

    Acta Politca (April 2011), n.46: pp. 158-179

    Autori: Carlo Ruzza, Stefano Fella

    Abstract

    This paper documents and analyses how populist discourse was used in very different ways by political entrepreneurs of the Italian right, leading to three specific manifestations. The empirical range of populist ideologies is identified through a frame analysis of party materials and connected to the varying political and cultural opportunities of different kinds of parties. However, it is argued that at the same time a common reliance on some common populist tenets constituted an innovative strategy of the Italian right, and that as an ideology one of it’s distinctive functions has been to act as a conceptual glue in a coalition which would otherwise be deeply internally divided.

    Full text: https://www.palgrave-journals.com/ap/journal/v46/n2/full/ap20115a.html

  • Obama and the 2012 Elections – Robert Shrum alla LUISS School of Government

    “Obama and the 2012 Elections”. Questo il titolo della conferenza di mercoledì 1 giugno (ore 12.30), presso la Meeting Room della LUISS School of Government, in Via di Villa Emiliani 14 a Roma (è necessaria la prenotazione).

    Il seminario è tenuto da Robert M. Shrum, Senior Fellow presso la Robert F. Wagner School of Public Service, New York University

    Così la breve ma densa nota biografica di Robert Shrum:

     

    Robert M. Shrum is a Senior Fellow at the Robert F. Wagner School of Public Service at NYU. As an American political consultant, he worked as a senior advisor to the presidential campaigns of Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004. He has been a senior advisor to Ehud Barak of Israel, the British Labour Party, and Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern. He began his career as a speechwriter for George McGovern, Jimmy Carter and then Ted Kennedy, working on the famous speech Kennedy delivered to the Democratic National Convention in 1980. From 1986 to 2004, he was the media and strategic consultant to 30 winning U.S. Senate campaigns, 10 winning Governor’s campaigns, and the Mayors of virtually every major American city. Shrum also publishes widely in various magazines and newspapers such as The Week Magazine, New York Magazine, the Los Angeles Times, the New York Times, The New Republic and Slate. His political memoire No Excuses: Concessions of a Serial Campaigner, published in June 2007, was a national bestseller.

     

    per partecipare è necessario registrarsi scrivendo a sog@luiss.it

    mercoledì 1 giugno, ore 12.30,
    LUISS School of Government
    Via di Villa Emiliani 14, Roma
    Meeting Room

  • Il simulatore online del ballottaggio di Napoli

    [cf]JSNapoli[/cf]

    Cosa accadrà al secondo turno delle amministrative a Napoli? Scoprilo con il simulatore di flussi elettorali. Si tratta di simulare, per ogni categoria di elettori al primo turno (chi aveva votato Lettieri, Morcone, De Magistris, ecc.), come si comporterà al secondo turno.

    (ATTENZIONE: se vuoi vedere com’è poi andata veramente, vedi le stime basate sui risultati effettivi nelle quasi 900 sezioni di Napoli)

    Pensi che gli elettori di Lettieri torneranno a votarlo al 100%, oppure il 95% di loro la voterà di nuovo, mentre il 5% si asterrà? Pensi che i voti di Morcone andranno al 100% a De Magistris, o che molti andranno verso l’astensione? Puoi simulare tutte queste opzioni inserendo i valori che ritieni più probabili nelle rispettive caselle.

    In più hai anche la possibilità di aggiungere nuovi elettori, nell’ipotesi che l’affluenza possa addirittura aumentare rispetto al primo turno. In questo caso devi specificare quanti nuovi elettori ti aspetti (al massimo 50.000), e poi decidere come si divideranno tra i due candidati. Il limite di 50.000 corrisponde a un’ipotesi in cui verrebbe eguagliata l’affluenza di cinque anni fa, che fu più alta.

    Infine, per far capire meglio come funziona la simulazione, abbiamo messo dei valori di partenza in ciascuna casella. Tuttavia non si tratta di suggerimenti: cambiali a piacimento secondo gli scenari che ritieni più plausibili.

    Attenzione! L’unica regola è che la somma delle percentuali su una stessa riga deve fare 100. Buon divertimento!

    I turno Cosa faranno al II turno?
    Candidato Voti verso Lettieri verso De Magistris verso astensione
    Lettieri 179.575

    		 % % %
    De Magistris 128.303

    		 % % %
    Morcone (Pd-Sel-altri) 89.280

    		 % % %
    Pasquino (Udc-Fli-Api) 45.449

    		 % % %
    Altri 23.567

    		 % % %
    Nuovi elettori,
    che non avevano votato
    al primo turno    		 % % %
    PREVISIONE al II turno

  • The elitist populism of the extreme right: A frame analysis of extreme right-wing discourses in Italy and Germany

    Segnalazione bibliografica.

    Acta Politca (April 2011), n.46: pp. 180-202

    Autori: Manuela Caiani, Donatella della Porta

    Abstract

    In this article, we investigate the presence and forms of populist frames in the discourse of the extreme right by looking at different types of extreme right organizations in Italy and Germany. Focusing on the meso, organizational level, and applying a frame analysis to written documents (for example newspapers, magazines) of certain selected extreme right organizations, chosen from the political party and non-party extreme right milieu in the two countries, the article examines the relevance and the characteristics of the populist discourse in the extreme right. Similarities and differences between types of extreme right groups and countries in the framing strategies of populism are underlined and Full texted to the cultural (historical) and political-discursive opportunities. The bridging of appeal to the people with other (more traditional) frames of the extreme right (for example nativism) is shown. In particular, we look at how the central populist frame (namely the people versus the elite) is linked to the extreme right definition of the ‘us’ and the ‘them’, when developing diagnoses, prognoses and motivations to action. The analysis is based on a total of around 4000 frames collected in documents from 2002 to 2006.

    Full text: https://www.palgrave-journals.com/ap/journal/v46/n2/full/ap201028a.html

  • Il simulatore online del ballottaggio di Milano

    [cf]JS[/cf]

    Cosa accadrà al secondo turno delle amministrative a Milano? Scoprilo con il simulatore di flussi elettorali. Si tratta di simulare, per ogni categoria di elettori al primo turno (chi aveva votato Moratti, Pisapia, ecc.), come si comporterà al secondo turno.

    Pensi che gli elettori della Moratti torneranno a votarla al 100%, oppure il 95% di loro la voterà di nuovo, mentre il 5% si asterrà? Pensi che i voti di Palmeri andranno 80% alla Moratti e 20% a Pisapia? Puoi simulare tutte queste opzioni inserendo i valori che ritieni più probabili nelle rispettive caselle.

    In più hai anche la possibilità di aggiungere nuovi elettori, nell’ipotesi che l’affluenza possa addirittura aumentare rispetto al primo turno. In questo caso devi specificare quanti nuovi elettori ti aspetti (al massimo 45.000), e poi decidere come si divideranno tra i due candidati. Il limite di 45.000 corrisponde alla metà di quegli elettori che vanno a votare alle politiche, ma che disertano sistematicamente le elezioni comunali. Anche se in questa occasione alcuni di loro potrebbero eccezionalmente andare a votare, ci pare difficile che possano essere più della metà.

    Infine, per far capire meglio come funziona la simulazione, abbiamo messo dei valori di partenza in ciascuna casella. Tuttavia non si tratta di suggerimenti: cambiali a piacimento secondo gli scenari che ritieni più plausibili.

    Attenzione! L’unica regola è che la somma delle percentuali su una stessa riga deve fare 100. Buon divertimento!

    I turno Cosa faranno al II turno?
    Candidato Voti verso Moratti verso Pisapia verso astensione
    Moratti 273.401

    		 % % %
    Pisapia 315.862

    		 % % %
    Palmeri (Udc – Nuovo Polo) 36.471

    		 % % %
    Calise (Movimento 5 Stelle) 21.228

    		 % % %
    Altri 10.417

    		 % % %
    Nuovi elettori,
    che non avevano votato
    al primo turno    		 % % %
    PREVISIONE al II turno

  • Variability in Citizens’ Reactions to Different Types of Negative Campaigns

    Segnalazione bibliografica.

    American Journal of Political Science (April 2011), Vol. 55, N. 2: pp. 307-325

    Autori: Kim L. Fridkin, Patrick Kenney

    Abstract

    Do negative advertisements lower voters’ evaluations of the targeted candidate? We theorize that there is much to be gained by examining the variance in the content and tone of negative campaign messages and the variance in voters’ sensitivity to negative political rhetoric. We employ data from the 2006 Cooperative Congressional Election Study to investigate the impact of negative campaigning in U.S. Senate campaigns. We sampled 1,045 respondents in 21 of the 28 U.S. Senate races featuring a majority party incumbent and challenger. In addition to the survey data, we collected contextual data regarding the political advertisements aired during the campaigns and the news coverage of these campaigns in state newspapers. The evidence suggests that the impact of negative information is multifaceted, and under some circumstances, substantial. We find that uncivil and relevant negative messages are the most powerful, especially for people with less tolerance for negative political rhetoric.

    Full text: https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/bpl/ajps/2011/00000055/00000002/art00008

  • Make It Rain? Retrospection and the Attentive Electorate in the Context of Natural Disasters

    Segnalazione bibliografica.

    American Journal of Political Science (April 2011), Vol. 55, N. 2, pp. 340-355

    Autori: John T. Gasper, Andrew Reeves

    Abstract

    Are election outcomes driven by events beyond the control of politicians? Democratic accountability requires that voters make reasonable evaluations of incumbents. Although natural disasters are beyond human control, the response to these events is the responsibility of elected officials. In a county-level analysis of gubernatorial and presidential elections from 1970 to 2006, we examine the effects of weather events and governmental responses. We find that electorates punish presidents and governors for severe weather damage. However, we find that these effects are dwarfed by the response of attentive electorates to the actions of their officials. When the president rejects a request by the governor for federal assistance, the president is punished and the governor is rewarded at the polls. The electorate is able to separate random events from governmental responses and attribute actions based on the defined roles of these two politicians.

    Full text: https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/bpl/ajps/2011/00000055/00000002/art00010

  • I temi etici e l’immigrazione


    Sulla nutrizione artificiale per i malati in stato di incoscienza, tema connesso alla proposta di legge sul testamento biologico, l’opinione del campione è divisa, seppure con una prevalenza di contrari. Il 55,3% del campione si dichiara infatti contrario all’obbligo di nutrizione artificiale, a fronte di un 44,7% di favorevoli.
    (Osservatorio Politico CISE – aprile 2011)