L’apparentamento non basta: a Siena gli elettori di Piccini non lo seguono e fanno vincere il centrodestra

25 Giugno 2018

Il ballottaggio a Siena ha regalato uno dei risultati più sorprendenti di questa tornata di elezioni comunali. Nonostante la storia elettorale del comune del palio, il risultato del primo turno, che ancora vedeva largamente in testa il candidato del centrosinistra, e l’apparentamento di questi con il primo degli esclusi dal ballottaggio (il candidato giunto terzo, l’ex sindaco Piccini), a spuntarla è stato, clamorosamente, il centrodestra.

Come è stato possibile? Le nostre stime dei flussi elettorali mostrano che decisivi per il successo di De Mossi sono stati i voti arrivati da quanti al primo turno avevano votato Sportelli (il 50% del suo elettorato del primo turno, pari a un sesto di quello al ballottaggio del vincitore), e, Piccini. Infatti, nonostante l’apparentamento cui abbiamo accennato sopra, un terzo ha scelto De Mossi: un flusso che pesa il 4% dell’elettorato senese, e contribuisce per il 15% al successo del candidato di centrodestra.

Infine il diagramma di Sankey mostra anche che i (pochi) elettori che hanno votato al secondo turn dopo essersi astenuti al primo (il 2% dei senesi) hanno tutti scelto De Mossi. Interessante, infine, rilevare come nessuno degli elettori del candidato a sinistra di Valentini abbia votato per quest’ultimo al ballottaggio. Si sono infatti divisi fra astensione (due terzi) e De Mossi (il restante terzo).

Fig. 1 – Flussi elettorali a Siena fra primo turno (sinistra) e secondo turno (destra) delle comunali 2018, percentuali sull’intero elettorato (clicca per ingrandire)

Riferimenti bibliografici

Goodman, L. A. (1953), ‘Ecological regression and behavior of individual’, American Sociological Review, 18, pp. 663-664.

Schadee, H.M.A., e Corbetta, P., (1984), Metodi e modelli di analisi dei dati elettorali, Bologna, Il Mulino.

NOTA METODOLOGICA

I flussi presentati sono stati calcolati applicando il modello di Goodman (1953) alle 50 sezioni elettorali del comune di Siena. Seguendo Schadee e Corbetta (1984), abbiamo eliminato le sezioni con meno di 100 elettori (in ognuna delle due elezioni considerate nell’analisi), nonché quelle che hanno registrato un tasso di variazione superiore al 15% nel numero di elettori iscritti (sia in aumento che in diminuzione). Si tratta di 2 unità in tutto. Il valore dell’indice VR è pari a 6,2.

Redazione CISE

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L’apparentamento non basta: a Siena gli elettori di Piccini non lo seguono e fanno vincere il centrodestra

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