Affluenza ore 23. Calo di circa 10 punti: è il più importante della storia della Repubblica

25 Settembre 2022

Con dati da 7289 comuni su 7904, l’affluenza è attualmente del 64,06% contro il 73,86% del 2018. Un calo di dieci punti, il più importante della storia della Repubblica, praticamente il doppio del precedente calo più importante, registrato tra 2008 e 2013 (vedi la serie storica).

Tra le possibili spiegazioni che dovranno essere approfondite:

il naturale ricambio generazionale, che produce cali costanti da decenni in tutta l’Europa Occidentale;
possibili effetti di astensionismo involontario, anche legati all’emergenza meteo in alcune regioni;
la scarsa competitività percepita dell’elezione, il cui esito da settimane veniva dato essenzialmente per acquisito (sia a livello nazionale che in termini di collegi uninominali);
la legislatura terminata in anticipo;
come nel caso del governo Monti (dopo il quale si registrò il precedente calo più marcato) la presenza di un governo di larghe intese, con partiti in difficoltà di fronte all’aver sostenuto misure oggetto di importanti compromessi.

Lorenzo De Sio

Lorenzo De Sio è professore ordinario di Scienza Politica presso la LUISS Guido Carli, e direttore del CISE - Centro Italiano di Studi Elettorali. Già Jean Monnet Fellow presso lo European University Institute, Visiting Research Fellow presso la University of California, Irvine, e Campbell National Fellow presso la Stanford University, è membro di ITANES (Italian National Election Studies), ha partecipato a vari progetti di ricerca internazionali, tra cui “The True European Voter”(ESF-COST Action IS0806), the “EU Profiler” (2009) e EUandI (2014), e di recente ha dato vita al progetto ICCP (Issue Competition Comparative Project). I suoi interessi di ricerca attuali vertono sull'analisi quantitativa dei comportamenti di voto e delle strategie di partito in prospettiva comparata, con particolare attenzione al ruolo delle issues. Tra le sue pubblicazioni, accanto a vari volumi in italiano e in inglese, ci sono articoli apparsi su American Political Science Review, Comparative Political Studies, Electoral Studies, Party Politics, West European Politics, South European Society and Politics, oltre che su numerose riviste scientifiche italiane. Clicca qui per accedere al profilo su IRIS.

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Affluenza ore 23. Calo di circa 10 punti: è il più importante della storia della Repubblica

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