Ad Ancona il centrosinistra tiene i suoi voti e si conferma al comune

25 Giugno 2018

Il ballottaggio ad Ancona ha registrato una delle poche note liete per il centrosinistra nella Zona Rossa (dove sono state perse Siena, Massa, Pisa e Imola, per citarne solo alcune cadute ieri).

Grazie all’analisi dei flussi emerge che il sindaco uscente del centrosinistra (Mancinelli) è riuscita fondamentalmente a tenere i quasi tutti suoi voti del primo turno (l’86% complessivamente). Ciò le ha permesse di mantenere il comune grazie anche al vantaggio accumulato al primo turno. Infatti, lo sfidante di centrodestra (Tombolini) ha avuto tassi di fedeltà fra primo e secondo turno analoghi anche se un po’ inferiori (il 76% nel complesso), e ha potuto contare su una certa preferenza degli elettori del M5S, ma ciò non è bastato a chiudere anche solo parzialmente il distacco del primo turno.

In particolare, il 40% degli elettori del M5S al primo turno ha scelto Tombolini, che da qui prende un quarto dei suoi voti al ballottaggio, mentre il 20% ha votato Mancinelli. Ad Ancona, infine, gli elettori del candidato di sinistra (Filogna Rubini) hanno in maggioranza scelto il candidato di centrosinistra al ballottaggio (il 56%).

Fig. 1 – Flussi elettorali a Ancona fra primo turno (sinistra) e secondo turno (destra) delle comunali 2018, percentuali sull’intero elettorato (clicca per ingrandire)

Riferimenti bibliografici

Goodman, L. A. (1953), ‘Ecological regression and behavior of individual’, American Sociological Review, 18, pp. 663-664.

Schadee, H.M.A., e Corbetta, P., (1984), Metodi e modelli di analisi dei dati elettorali, Bologna, Il Mulino.

NOTA METODOLOGICA

I flussi presentati sono stati calcolati applicando il modello di Goodman (1953) alle 100 sezioni elettorali del comune di Ancona. Seguendo Schadee e Corbetta (1984), abbiamo eliminato le sezioni con meno di 100 elettori (in ognuna delle due elezioni considerate nell’analisi), nonché quelle che hanno registrato un tasso di variazione superiore al 15% nel numero di elettori iscritti (sia in aumento che in diminuzione). Si tratta di 3 unità in tutto. Il valore dell’indice VR è pari a 1,8.

Redazione CISE

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Ad Ancona il centrosinistra tiene i suoi voti e si conferma al comune

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