Amministrative 2011

Amministrative 2011

Amministrative 2011

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di Nicola Maggini Al primo turno delle elezioni comunali di Milano, il candidato del centrosinistra Pisapia ha ottenuto il 48,04% dei consensi contro il 41,58% ottenuto dal sindaco uscente di centrodestra Letizia Moratti. Questo dato è omogeneo su tutto il territorio comunale? Per rispondere a questa domanda guardiamo sia a quelli che sono i risultati elettorali per i nove consigli di zona presenti nel comune di Milano sia a quelli che sono i risultati dei vari candidati a sindaco disaggregati per zona, come riportato nelle tabelle seguenti. Tabella 1- Elezioni circoscrizionali Tabella 2- Elezioni comunali, dati disaggregati per zone Legenda zona 1: centro storico; zona...

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di Federico De Lucia Una delle più interessanti analisi che si possono fare relativamente alle recenti elezioni provinciali è quella che si riferisce alle performance elettorali dei principali partiti. Nelle Figure che seguono si riporta, in valori assoluti e percentuali, l’andamento dei partiti italiani attualmente presenti in Parlamento. L’area geografica di riferimento corrisponde alle sole 8 Province nelle quali, fra quelle in cui si è votato domenica e lunedì scorsi, è possibile operare un confronto con le regionali dello scorso anno: si tratta dunque di Vercelli, Pavia, Mantova, Treviso, Ravenna, Lucca, Macerata, Reggio Calabria, mentre sono escluse dal nostro aggregato...

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di Federico De Lucia Dopo aver analizzato, in precedenti articoli, le prestazioni degli schieramenti e dei partiti parlamentari, confrontandole con le tornate elettorali degli ultimi cinque anni, forniamo ora il riepilogo delle prestazioni di tutti i partiti (parlamentari o meno, grandi o piccoli che siano). In questo caso, a causa di esigenze di omogeneità nell’offerta politica, ci limitiamo ad un confronto con le regionali scorse. Ovviamente, a maggior ragione che per le analisi precedenti, il nostro aggregato territoriale si limita alle sole 8 Province per le quali il confronto con il 2010 è possibile. Nella Tabella riportiamo i risultati delle...

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di Federico De Lucia Un aspetto molto rilevante delle elezioni regionali molisane appena tenutesi è la differenza che si è registrata tra competizione maggioritaria (quella fra i listini regionali) e competizione proporzionale (quella fra le liste di partito). Tabella 1 Dalla Tabella 1 questo fatto emerge chiaramente. Ed emerge in particolare la pessima prestazione del candidato Presidente poi risultato eletto. Oltre che perdere molti voti rispetto alla tornata elettorale scorsa, Iorio ha ottenuto ben 12.000 voti in meno di quanti non ne abbiano ottenuti le liste che lo sostenevano. In sostanza, il 10% di coloro che hanno votato liste di centrodestra ha...

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di Vincenzo Emanuele e Aldo Paparo Le elezioni comunali del 15 e 16 Maggio sono state una prova importante per testare lo stato di salute dei due maggiori partiti italiani, il Pd e il Pdl. Risulta pertanto interessante confrontare il risultato elettorale complessivo ottenuto da queste due forze politiche in queste elezioni con quello delle tornate precedenti. Per effettuare un raffronto omogeneo tra i dati abbiamo preso in considerazione solamente i risultati dei 23 comuni capoluogo nei quali si è votato anche alle regionali del 2010 (i quattro capoluoghi...
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© 2009-2019 CISE - Centro Italiano Studi Elettorali
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n.initCustomEvent(e,t.bubbles,t.cancelable,t.detail),n}e.prototype=window.Event.prototype,window.CustomEvent=e}}(),function(e){e[e.Pending=0]="Pending",e[e.Loaded=1]="Loaded",e[e.Failed=2]="Failed"}(State$1||(State$1={}));class Provider{constructor(e){this.timeoutSeconds=5,this.handlePixelEvent=e=>{switch(this.state){case State$1.Failed:break;case State$1.Pending:setTimeout((()=>this.handlePixelEvent(e)),100);break;case State$1.Loaded:this.onPixelEvent(e)}},this.watch=()=>{switch(this.state){case State$1.Loaded:case State$1.Failed:break;case State$1.Pending:this.isLoaded()?this.state=State$1.Loaded:this.isTimedOut()?this.state=State$1.Failed:setTimeout(this.watch,50)}},this.config=e,this.identifier&&this.identifier.length>0?(this.state=State$1.Pending,this.timeoutAt=new Date,this.timeoutAt.setSeconds(this.timeoutAt.getSeconds()+this.timeoutAfter()),this.injectPixel()):this.state=State$1.Failed}get identifier(){var e;return null===(e=this.config)||void 0===e?void 0:e.key}get pixelEvents(){var e;return null===(e=this.config)||void 0===e?void 0:e.pixel_events}injectPixel(){this.injectedAt||(this.injectedAt=new Date,this.inject(),this.watch())}inject(){const e=document.createElement("script");e.text=this.script,document.head.appendChild(e)}isTimedOut(){return+new Date>=+this.timeoutAt}timeoutAfter(){return this.timeoutSeconds}selectPixelEvents(e){if(Array.isArray(this.pixelEvents))return this.pixelEvents.filter((t=>"term-view"===t.trigger&&"visit"===e||(!(!["term-click","ad-view"].includes(t.trigger)||"ctr"!==e)||"ad-click"===t.trigger&&"click"===e)))}}class Facebook extends Provider{get script(){return`!function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s){if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function(){n.callMethod?n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)};if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version='2.0';n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0;t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0];s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window, document,'script','https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbevents.js');fbq('init', '${this.identifier}');`}onPixelEvent(e){this.selectPixelEvents(e).forEach((e=>{e&&(e.custom?window.fbq("trackCustom",e.event):window.fbq("track",e.event))}))}isLoaded(){return!!window.fbq}}class Outbrain extends Provider{get script(){return`!function(_window, _document) {var OB_ADV_ID = '${this.identifier}';if (_window.obApi) {var toArray = function(object) {return Object.prototype.toString.call(object) === '[object Array]' ? object : [object];};_window.obApi.marketerId = toArray(_window.obApi.marketerId).concat(toArray(OB_ADV_ID));return;}var api = _window.obApi = function() {api.dispatch ? api.dispatch.apply(api, arguments) : api.queue.push(arguments);};api.version = '1.1';api.loaded = true;api.marketerId = OB_ADV_ID;api.queue = [];var tag = _document.createElement('script');tag.async = true;tag.src = '//amplify.outbrain.com/cp/obtp.js';tag.type = 'text/javascript';var script = _document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0];script.parentNode.insertBefore(tag, script);}(window, document);`}onPixelEvent(e){this.selectPixelEvents(e).forEach((e=>{e&&window.obApi("track",e.event)}))}isLoaded(){return!!window.obApi}}class Revcontent extends Provider{get script(){return""}inject(){const e=document.createElement("script");e.src="https://assets.revcontent.com/master/rev.js",document.head.appendChild(e)}onPixelEvent(e){this.selectPixelEvents(e).forEach((e=>{e&&window.rev("event",e.event)}))}isLoaded(){return!!window.rev}}class Taboola extends Provider{get script(){return"window._tfa = window._tfa || [];!function (t, f, a, x) {if (!document.getElementById(x)) {t.async = 1;t.src = a;t.id=x;f.parentNode.insertBefore(t, f);}}(document.createElement('script'),document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0],'//cdn.taboola.com/libtrc/unip/1451879/tfa.js','tb_tfa_script');"}onPixelEvent(e){this.selectPixelEvents(e).forEach((e=>{e&&window._tfa.push({notify:"event",name:e.event,id:e.pixel_id})}))}isLoaded(){return Array.isArray(window._tfa)}}class Tiktok extends Provider{constructor(e,t){super(e),this.useAltTikTokEventsForAdsPlatformUser=t}get script(){return`!function (w, d, t) {w.TiktokAnalyticsObject=t;var ttq=w[t]=w[t]||[];ttq.methods=["page","track","identify","instances","debug","on","off","once","ready","alias","group","enableCookie","disableCookie"],ttq.setAndDefer=function(t,e){t[e]=function(){t.push([e].concat(Array.prototype.slice.call(arguments,0)))}};for(var i=0;i{e&&window.ttq.instance(this.identifier).track(e.event)}))}isLoaded(){return!!window.ttq}}const ADS_PARAM$1="?caf",MESSAGE_PREFIX="FSXDC,.aCS:",ALLOWED_ORIGINS=["https://www.google.com","https://www.adsensecustomsearchads.com","https://syndicatedsearch.goog","https://googleadservices.com"];class Pixels{static build(e){const t=unpackPHPArrayObject(e,"pixel_tracking_data");if(t)return t.useAltTikTokEventsForAdsPlatformUser=e.is_ads,new Pixels(t)}constructor(e){this.onPixelEvent=e=>{const{detail:{type:t}}=e;switch(t){case"visit":case"ctr":case"click":this.providers.forEach((e=>e.handlePixelEvent(t)))}},this.providers=[new Facebook(e.facebook),new Tiktok(e.tiktok,e.useAltTikTokEventsForAdsPlatformUser),new Taboola(e.taboola),new Revcontent(e.revcontent),new Outbrain(e.outbrain)]}listenForEvents(){document.addEventListener("pixel",(e=>{this.onPixelEvent(e)}));window.onmessage=e=>{const{origin:t,data:n}=e;ALLOWED_ORIGINS.includes(t)&&(null==n?void 0:n.startsWith(MESSAGE_PREFIX))&&window.location.search.startsWith(ADS_PARAM$1)&&document.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("pixel",{detail:{type:"click"}}))}}dispatchEvent(e){document.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("pixel",{detail:e}))}}var State;!function(e){e[e.Pending=0]="Pending",e[e.Loaded=1]="Loaded",e[e.Failure=2]="Failure",e[e.TimedOut=3]="TimedOut",e[e.Errored=4]="Errored"}(State||(State={}));const CAF_SCRIPT_SRC=`https://www.google.com/adsense/domains/caf.js?${GOOGLE_MV3_URL_PARAMS}`,TIMEOUT_SCRIPTS=Number(GOOGLE_CAF_TIMEOUT_SCRIPTS),TIMEOUT_CALLBACKS=Number(GOOGLE_CAF_TIMEOUT_CALLBACKS);class StateMachine{constructor(){this.state=State.Pending}transitionTo(e){this.state=e}transitionFromPendingTo(e){this.done||(this.state=e)}get loaded(){return this.state===State.Loaded}get timedOut(){return this.state===State.TimedOut}get done(){return this.state!==State.Pending}}class Ads{constructor(e,t){this.state={script:new StateMachine,blocks:new StateMachine},this.blocksLoaded=[],this.injectScriptTags=()=>__awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){return new Promise((e=>{const t=document.createElement("script");t.type="text/javascript",t.src=CAF_SCRIPT_SRC,t.addEventListener("load",(()=>e(!0))),t.addEventListener("error",(()=>e(!1))),document.body.appendChild(t),TIMEOUT_SCRIPTS>0&&setTimeout((()=>e(!1)),TIMEOUT_SCRIPTS)}))})),this.onPageLoaded=(e,t)=>{if(this.pageLoaded={requestAccepted:e,status:t},this.state.script.done)return;const n=null==t?void 0:t.error_code;n?(this.state.script.transitionTo(State.Failure),this.failureReason=`caf_pageloaderror_${n}`):this.state.script.transitionTo(State.Loaded)},this.onBlockLoaded=(e,t,n,i)=>{this.blocksLoaded.push({containerName:e,adsLoaded:t,isExperimentVariant:n,callbackOptions:i}),this.state.blocks.done||(t?this.state.blocks.transitionTo(State.Loaded):this.blocksLoaded.length>=this.blocks.length&&(this.state.blocks.transitionTo(State.Failure),this.failureReason=`caf_adloadfail_${e}`))},this.onTimeout=()=>{this.state.script.transitionFromPendingTo(State.TimedOut),this.state.blocks.transitionFromPendingTo(State.TimedOut)},this.blocks=e,this.options=t}get loaded(){return this.state.script.loaded&&!this.blocksLoaded.map((e=>e.adsLoaded)).includes(!1)}waitForBlocks(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){return new Promise((e=>{const t=()=>{const n=performance.now();if(this.state.blocks.done)return this.cafLoadTime=Math.round(n-this.cafStartTime),void e();const i=this.blocksLoaded.map((e=>e.adsLoaded));i.includes(!1)||i.length>=this.blocks.length?e():setTimeout(t,50)};t()}))}))}inject(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){try{const e=yield this.injectScriptTags();return this.cafStartTime=performance.now(),e&&void 0!==window.google?(new window.google.ads.domains.Caf(Object.assign(Object.assign({},this.options),{pageLoadedCallback:this.onPageLoaded,adLoadedCallback:this.onBlockLoaded}),...this.blocks),TIMEOUT_CALLBACKS>0&&setTimeout(this.onTimeout,TIMEOUT_CALLBACKS),yield new Promise((e=>{const t=()=>{this.state.script.done?e():setTimeout(t,10)};t()}))):void this.state.script.transitionTo(State.Failure)}catch(e){return void(this.error=e.toString())}}))}toCallbacks(){return{adLoadedCallback:this.blocksLoaded.slice(-1)[0],pageLoadedCallback:this.pageLoaded,cafTimedOut:this.state.script.timedOut||this.state.blocks.timedOut,cafLoadedMs:this.cafLoadTime,googleAdsFailure:!!this.failureReason}}toContext(){const e={cafScriptWasLoaded:this.state.script.loaded,cafScriptLoadTime:this.cafLoadTime,callbacks:this.toCallbacks};return this.error&&(e.js_error={message:this.error}),this.state.script.loaded||(e.zeroclick={reason:"googleAdsFailure"}),e}mockFailedState(){this.state.blocks.transitionTo(State.Failure),this.state.script.transitionTo(State.Failure)}}class TagManager{constructor(e){this.injected=!1,this.identifier=e}inject(){if(this.injected)return;if(!this.identifier)return;if("TEST"===this.identifier)return;const e=document.createElement("script");e.setAttribute("src",`https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=${this.identifier}`),document.head.appendChild(e),this.track(),this.injected=!0}track(){this.push("js",new Date),this.push("config",this.identifier)}push(e,t){window.dataLayer||(window.dataLayer=[]),window.dataLayer.push(arguments)}}const ADS_PARAM="caf",ADS_TRACKING_URL="_tr",BLOCKS_TYPE="ads",BLOCKS_CONTAINER="rs",KNOWN_CAF_PARAMS=["caf","query","afdToken","pcsa","nb","nm","nx","ny","is","clkt"];class Google{static build({pageOptions:e,preferredLanguage:t,blocks:n,googleAnalytics:i},s,a,o){let r={};e&&(r=Object.assign({},e),r.hl||(r.hl=t));let d=null==e?void 0:e.resultsPageBaseUrl;d||(d=window.location.origin);return new Google(s.uuid,n,r,i,d,o)}constructor(e,t,n,i,s,a){this._blocks=t,this._pageOptions=n,this.uuid=e,this._baseURL=new URL(s),this._signature=a,this.ads=new Ads(this.blocks,this.pageOptions),this.tagManager=new TagManager(i)}injectTagManager(){this.tagManager.inject()}injectAds(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){yield this.ads.inject()}))}waitForBlocks(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){return this.ads.waitForBlocks()}))}get blocks(){return(this._blocks||[]).filter((e=>this.wantsToServeAds?e.type===BLOCKS_TYPE:e.container===BLOCKS_CONTAINER)).map((e=>{const t=this.baseURL;new URLSearchParams(window.location.search).forEach(((e,n)=>{t.searchParams.has(n)||t.searchParams.append(n,e)}));const n=Object.assign({},e);if(n.resultsPageBaseUrl=t.toString(),this.wantsToServeAds){const e=new URLSearchParams;e.append("click","true"),e.append("session",this.uuid);const t=Object.assign({},this._signature);delete t.ad_loaded_callback,delete t.caf_loaded_ms,delete t.caf_timed_out,delete t.flex_rule,delete t.frame,delete t.js_error,delete t.no_ads_redirect,delete t.page_headers,delete t.page_request,delete t.page_loaded_callback,delete t.popup,delete t.screen_resolution,delete t.user_has_ad_blocker,delete t.user_preference,delete t.user_supports_darkmode,delete t.user_using_darkmode,delete t.zeroclick,e.append("signature",encode(t)),n.clicktrackUrl=`${TRACKING_DOMAIN}${ADS_TRACKING_URL}?${e.toString()}`}return n}))}get baseURL(){const e=new URL(this._baseURL.origin);return e.searchParams.append(ADS_PARAM,"1"),this._baseURL.searchParams.forEach(((t,n)=>{e.searchParams.append(n,t)})),e}get pageOptions(){const e=Object.assign({},this._pageOptions);return Object.keys(this._pageOptions).forEach((t=>{t.startsWith("bodis")&&delete e[t]})),e}get cannotLoadAds(){return!this.ads.loaded}get wantsToServeAds(){return new URLSearchParams(window.location.search).has(ADS_PARAM)}get adsMode(){return this.ads.loaded&&this.wantsToServeAds}get adsReady(){return this.wantsToServeAds&&!this.cannotLoadAds}get noAdsRedirectUrl(){const e=new URLSearchParams(window.location.search);return KNOWN_CAF_PARAMS.forEach((t=>e.delete(t))),`${window.location.origin}?${e.toString()}`}get callbacks(){return this.ads.toCallbacks()}toContext(){return Object.assign({blocks:this.blocks,pageOptions:this.pageOptions},this.ads.toContext())}}class CookieConsentManager{constructor(){this.injectScriptTag=()=>__awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){return new Promise((e=>{const t=document.createElement("script");t.setAttribute("src",COOKIE_CONSENT_JS_URL),t.addEventListener("load",(()=>this.awaitConsent(e))),t.addEventListener("error",(()=>e(!1))),document.head.appendChild(t)}))}))}inject(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.injected||!COOKIE_CONSENT_JS_URL||isLocal()||(this.injected=yield this.injectScriptTag())}))}awaitConsent(e){let t=0;const n=setInterval((()=>{t+=1,20===t&&(clearInterval(n),e(!0)),void 0!==window.__tcfapi&&(window.addEventListener("ConsentActivity",(t=>{const{detail:{status:n}}=t;n&&e(!0)})),clearInterval(n))}),50)}}class App{main(){var e,t;return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){if(this.parkResponse=decode(),this.findDomainResponse=yield getFindDomain(),!this.findDomainResponse)throw new Error("Domain failed to load.");this.pixels=Pixels.build(this.findDomainResponse),null===(e=this.pixels)||void 0===e||e.listenForEvents(),this.adblock=new Adblock,yield this.adblock.inject(),this.google=Google.build(this.findDomainResponse,this.parkResponse,this.adblock,buildSignature({context:this.context,callbacks:null===(t=this.google)||void 0===t?void 0:t.callbacks},"click")),this.google.injectTagManager();const n=Parking.build(this.findDomainResponse,this.google);Render.prerender(n),this.cookieConsentManager=new CookieConsentManager,yield this.cookieConsentManager.inject();let i=Failed.cannotPark(this.findDomainResponse);if(i)return void(yield this.transitionToFailed(i,n));yield this.google.injectAds();let s=Disabled.build(this.findDomainResponse,this.adblock.state);if(s)return void(yield this.transitionToDisabled(s,n));const a=this.adblock.hasAdblocker();a&&this.adblock.handleAdblocked();const o=Sales.build(this.findDomainResponse);if(o)return void(yield this.transitionToSales(o));this.eligibleForZeroClick&&(this.zeroClickResponse=yield getZeroClick(this.context));const r=Redirect.build(this.findDomainResponse,this.zeroClickResponse,this.google);if(r)yield this.transitionToRedirect(r);else{if(a)return s=Disabled.build(this.findDomainResponse,this.adblock.state),void(yield this.transitionToDisabled(s,n));i=Failed.noSponsors(this.google),i?yield this.transitionToFailed(i,n):yield this.transitionToParking(n)}}))}transitionToParking(e){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.state=e,Render.template(e),Render.revealPage(),yield this.google.waitForBlocks(),yield this.track()}))}transitionToRedirect(e){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.state=e;const t=this.track();Render.revealPage(),yield waiter(e.delay,(e=>Render.loading(e))),yield t,window.location.href=e.url,log(`➡ Redirecting [${e.url}]`)}))}transitionToFailed(e,t){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.state=e,Render.message(e.message),Render.injectJS(t.javascript),Render.revealPage(),yield this.track()}))}transitionToSales(e){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.state=e,e.init(this.context),yield this.track()}))}transitionToDisabled(e,t){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){this.state=e,Render.message(e.message),Render.injectJS(t.javascript),Render.revealPage(),yield this.track()}))}track(){var e;return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){if(!this.state.track)return Promise.resolve();try{const t=this.state.trackingType;return null===(e=this.pixels)||void 0===e||e.dispatchEvent({type:t}),trackVisit({context:this.context,callbacks:this.google.callbacks},t)}catch(e){return}}))}get eligibleForZeroClick(){const{cannotPark:e,canZeroClick:t,zeroClick:n}=this.findDomainResponse,{cannotLoadAds:i,wantsToServeAds:s}=this.google;return this.adblock.state!==Blocking.BLOCKED&&(!!t&&(!!e||(!(!i||s)||!!(null==n?void 0:n.reason))))}get context(){var e,t,n,i;const s=this.findDomainResponse,a=this.parkResponse,o=null===(e=this.state)||void 0===e?void 0:e.toContext(),r=null===(t=this.adblock)||void 0===t?void 0:t.toContext(),d=null===(n=this.google)||void 0===n?void 0:n.toContext(),c=browserState(),l=Object.assign(Object.assign({},null===(i=this.findDomainResponse)||void 0===i?void 0:i.zeroClick),this.zeroClickResponse);return Object.assign(Object.assign(Object.assign(Object.assign(Object.assign(Object.assign(Object.assign({app_version:APP_VERSION},s),a),r),d),o),c),{zeroClick:l})}init(){return __awaiter(this,void 0,void 0,(function*(){try{window.__parkour=this,yield this.main()}catch(e){console.error("app",e);const t=Failed.fromError(e);this.state=t,Render.message(t.message),Render.revealPage()}}))}}(new App).init(),exports.App=App}));