The Issue Yield model predicts that parties will choose specific issues to emphasise, based on the joint assessment of electoral risks (how divisive is an issue within the party support base) and electoral opportunities (how widely supported is the same issue outside the party). According to this model, issues with high yield are those that combine a high affinity with the existing party base, together with a high potential to reach new voters. In previous work, the model showed a remarkable ability to explain aggregate issue importance as reported by party supporters, as well as issue emphasis in party manifestos. This paper tests the implications at the individual level by comparing a conventional model where issue salience is determined from manifesto data with a revised model where issue salience is determined by issue yield. The empirical findings show that issue yield is a more effective criterion than manifesto emphasis for identifying the issues most closely associated with party support in the minds of voters.

CHIARAMONTE, A. C. A. (2012). Recensione del volume: D. Giannetti & B. Grofman (eds), A natural experiment on electoral law reform. Evaluating the long-run consequences of 1990’s electoral reform in Italy and in Japan, New York, Springer, 2011. R...

D’ALIMONTE, R. D. R. (2012). The Twilight of the Berlusconi Era:Local Elections and National Referendums in Italy, May and June 2001. SOUTH EUROPEAN SOCIETY & POLITICS, 17, 261–279.

CHIARAMONTE, A. C. A. (2012). Dalla Prima alla Seconda Repubblica: 1992-1994. In L. Ricolfi, B. Loera, & S. Testa (Eds.), Italia al voto. Le elezioni politiche della Repubblica (pp. 323–349). TORINO: UTET.

This article analyzes the results of the Italian municipal elections held in May 2011. First, we make a simple count of the municipalities won by the various political blocs, and secondly we make a comparison with the results of regional elections of 2010. We have compared data concerning both the electoral performances of political blocs and those of the political parties who appeared in this election. We also present the results as disaggregated data, both from a demographic standpoint and from a geographical point of view. The analysis shows a clear electoral defeat of the center-right coalition, both in terms of municipalities lost and in terms of percentages of votes obtained. The fact that these two phenomena have occurred especially in the North, its traditional area of electoral strength, makes this defeat particularly significant. The center-left coalition, due to the difficulties of its opponent, gets a good result in terms of number of municipalities won, while not improving its performance in terms of percentages of votes obtained. The centrist coalition, finally, does not get a great performance in terms of votes obtained, but it often proves decisive in forcing the other two coalitions to the second ballot.