On the next 8th June, UK voters will be faced with a decisive election, which could have a profound impact not only on British internal affairs but also on the Brexit negotiations with the European Union. Beyond the analysis of the UK public opinion and political parties, derived from the original survey conducted by the CISE, a matter that requires further investigation and has been gaining increasing attention by pundits and the media is surely the forecasting of the composition of the next House of Commons.  In the past few days, more and more experts have been underlying that the...

Da ormai più di un anno, il CISE collabora attivamente - curando la sezione Public Opinion Trends - al "Monthly Report" (in inglese) sulla politica italiana pubblicato dalla Luiss School of Government. Il Monthly Report della SOG mira a fornire ad analisti, giornalisti e investitori internazionali una guida allo scenario politico, al processo decisionale e alle tendenze dell'opinione pubblica in Italia.Ripubblichiamo di seguito i contenuti della sezione Public Opinion Trends, a cura del CISE, dal Monthly Report di Febbraio 2020. L'intero rapporto è scaricabile qui. The polls In the...

Introduction Three contextual factors are important for understanding the results of the election in the Czech Republic. Also, the party system has changed dramatically in the recent decade showing the unprecedented decline of the old political parties and the emergence of different anti-establishment challengers after a series of corruption scandals, government instability coupled with the Great Recession (Balík, Hloušek 2016). The EP election took place in times of exceptional economic prosperity. The Czech Republic has experienced a record increase in salaries and has been enjoying the lowest level of unemployment among the EU member states. Last but not least, the...

Next Sunday, French voters will be called to the polls for the first round of the Presidential elections. During the final days of the electoral campaign, we want to provide a meaningful overview and interpretation of the structure of issue competition in the French system. To this purpose, CISE has collected an original dataset through CAWI interviews on a representative sample of the French voting-age population. In particular, in this article we focus on the candidates’ credibility on different issues. Our data includes a set of nine valence issues, on which there is by definition a consensual agreement (Stokes 1963)....

The decision by Theresa May to call a snap election has gone against her. Despite remaining the largest party in Westminster, the Conservatives have fallen short of an absolute majority of seats, and a hung Parliament is the outcome of this election. Jeremy Corbyn has brought the Labour Party to 40% of the votes, the largest result since 2001. In a context characterised by the highest turnout since 1997 (69%), a massive shift back towards a two-party system has occurred: the UKIP has collapsed, the SNP has stepped back, and the Liberal Democrats have not bounced back after the...