Segnalazione bibliografica. Autori: Brian Greenhill; Michael D. Ward; Audrey Sacks American Journal of Political Science, Volume 55, Number 4, 1 October 2011 , pp. 991-1002(12) Abstract We present a visual method for assessing the predictive power of models with binary outcomes. This technique allows the analyst to evaluate model fit based upon the models’ ability to consistently match high-probability predictions to actual occurrences of the event of interest, and low-probability predictions to nonoccurrences of the event of interest. (https://www.speedclean.com/) Unlike existing methods for assessing predictive power...

Segnalazione bibliografica. American Journal of Political Science, Volume 55, Number 4, 1 October 2011 , pp. 937-954(18) Autori: Garrett Glasgow; Matt Golder;  Sona N. Golder Abstract The prime ministership is the preeminent political post in parliamentary democracies. Yet few studies examine PM party choice, perhaps under the assumption that the choice is a simple function of party size. In this article, we argue that key strategic actors and the context in which government negotiations take place can play a critical role in PM party choice. We test our hypotheses using a mixed logit with random coefficients on an original data set...

Segnalazione bibliografica. American Journal of Political Science, Volume 55, Number 4, 1 October 2011 , pp. 923-936(14) Autore: Margit Tavits Abstract This study argues that organizationally stronger local party branches are more powerful within the party than organizationally weaker branches: they can better perform the tasks central to the party, which include communication with, and mobilization of, voters. I further argue that this subunit power should be manifested in the parliamentary behavior and status of MPs: those from districts where the local party organization is strong are more...

Come vedono i toscani la politica? Che rapporto hanno con essa? C’è qualcosa di diverso rispetto alla «subcultura rossa» della Prima Repubblica? Da questa ricerca, commissionata dalla Regione Toscana e condotta dal Centro Italiano Studi Elettorali con un approccio misto, quantitativo e qualitativo, emergono risposte articolate. Da un lato, è viva e in salute la partecipazione associativa, espressione di una tradizione che viene da lontano. (PhenQ) Dall’altro, emerge invece un declino della partecipazione politica, assieme a elementi di tensione nel rapporto tra cittadini, partiti e istituzioni. Segni inevitabili del grande cambiamento simbolico e organizzativo che ha investito...

Segnalazione bibliografica. American Journal of Political Science, Volume 55, Number 4, 1 October 2011 , pp. 907-922(16) Autore: Till Weber Abstract Very few theories of democratic elections can claim to overarch the field. One of them that has not been given due regard, I suggest, is Albert Hirschman's Exit, Voice, and Loyalty. I aim to exploit the integrative capacity of this general framework in a model of typical “midterm“ effects occurring through the electoral cycle. The model unites such diverse phenomena as antigovernment swings, declining turnout, protest voting,...