Pubblicazioni scientifiche

Pubblicazioni scientifiche

Pubblicazioni scientifiche

In 2011 Italian local elections we observed high electoral mobility: in Milan, for example, the center-left gained his first-time victory in the Berlusconi era, while in Naples there was a significant split voting in the first round and a huge turnaround between the first and the second ballot. A general research question emerged: are the shifts in the results understandable trough a left-right axis (political nature hypothesis of these elections) or were there cross-cutting mechanisms (local nature hypothesis of the elections with a strong role of personal aspects)? To answer the question we analyze the voting ecological estimates in the three biggest cities involved in 2011 elections: Milan, Naples and Turin. For every matrix we generated the estimates both applying the traditional Goodman model (for the whole city and splitting by district) and the hierarchical multinomial-dirichlet model developed by Rosen, Jiang, King and Taner. The most important result of our study is the strong political polarization of the vote in the two northern cities and a great importance of the local factors in Naples, where only a dominant role of the candidates can make sense of the detected shifts in voting behaviour.

Emanuele, Vincenzo, & Rombi, Stefano. (2013). Il voto nei circoli: cosa rischia Renzi. Candidate & Leader Selection (a Cura Di) [2013], Questioni Primarie, Www.rivistailmulino.it, (2), 7–8. Retrieved from http://www.rivistailmulino.it/item/23...

CHIARAMONTE, A., D’ALIMONTE, R. D. R., & SIO, L. D. (2006). A Razor-thin Victory. In J. Frosini & G. Pasquino (Eds.), For a Fistful of Votes. The 2006 Italian Elections (pp. 23–44). Bologna: CLUEB.

Operationalizations of the Rokkanian centre-periphery cleavage have traditionally focused on the presence of specific regional political cultures, as well as on cultural fragmentation within a country (at the aggregate level) or on proxy indicators such as town size (at the individual level). We suggest that geographical remoteness from political centres – a key element of the centre-periphery cleavage in the Rokkanian framework – could provide a more accurate measurement of the subjective position of individuals in relationship to the cleavage. As new indicators of this concept, we introduce measures of distance between the place of residence of a citizen and political centres at different hierarchical levels, based on road distances and travel times along traditional roads (also accounting for differences in orography and geography among different countries and regions). We empirically test the impact of such indicators on vote choice on the Italian and French cases. We use survey data from the 2006 ITANES and the 2002 PEF, and information about road distances and travel times obtained through online mapping/routing services. We first assess differences between the two countries in terms of orography and geography. We then estimate multivariate models of vote choice at the individual level, in order to te st the following hypotheses: a) that the new indicators add significant explanatory power, compared to traditional indicators related to the centre-periphery cleavage; b) that the new indicators have different effects on vote choice for different parties, expressing different affinities of these parties with the cleavage.

Cellini, E., Cigliuti, K., & De Sio, L. (2011). Numeri e storie: una doppia strategia d’indagine. In L. De Sio (Ed.), La politica cambia, i valori restano? Una ricerca sulla cultura politica dei cittadini toscani (pp. 33–44). Firenze: Firenze U...