Pubblicazioni scientifiche

Pubblicazioni scientifiche

Pubblicazioni scientifiche

Lorenzo De Sio, Mark N. Franklin, Till Weber, The risks and opportunities of Europe: How issue yield explains (non-)reactions to the financial crisis, Electoral Studies, Volume 44, December 2016, Pages 483-491, ISSN 0261-379 Lorenzo De Sio, interviewed by Andrea Maccagno (English translation by Elisabetta Mannoni) This paper analyzes how parties in different European countries employed (or decided not to employ) such a controversial topic as European integration in their electoral strategies. How did this article come about and which was the research question behind it? The paper is the application of a model I have been working at during the last few years. It’s...

Operationalizations of the Rokkanian centre-periphery cleavage have traditionally focused on the presence of specific regional political cultures, as well as on cultural fragmentation within a country (at the aggregate level) or on proxy indicators such as town size (at the individual level). We suggest that geographical remoteness from political centres – a key element of the centre-periphery cleavage in the Rokkanian framework – could provide a more accurate measurement of the subjective position of individuals in relationship to the cleavage. As new indicators of this concept, we introduce measures of distance between the place of residence of a citizen and political centres at different hierarchical levels, based on road distances and travel times along traditional roads (also accounting for differences in orography and geography among different countries and regions). We empirically test the impact of such indicators on vote choice on the Italian and French cases. We use survey data from the 2006 ITANES and the 2002 PEF, and information about road distances and travel times obtained through online mapping/routing services. We first assess differences between the two countries in terms of orography and geography. We then estimate multivariate models of vote choice at the individual level, in order to te st the following hypotheses: a) that the new indicators add significant explanatory power, compared to traditional indicators related to the centre-periphery cleavage; b) that the new indicators have different effects on vote choice for different parties, expressing different affinities of these parties with the cleavage.

Il modello prevalente per spiegare i comportamenti degli elettori e le scelte dei partiti si basa sul cosiddetto "teorema dell'elettore mediano", secondo cui i partiti, per vincere le elezioni, devono spostarsi progressivamente verso il centro, fino a diventare indistinguibili l'uno dall'altro. Ma questo modello non funziona. Se funzionasse, dovrebbe vincere sempre chi si trova al centro dello spazio politico, mentre sappiamo che possono avere successo candidati fortemente sfavoriti dalla loro "collocazione spaziale", ovvero lontani dal punto mediano. Determinante a questo proposito è il grado di interesse per la politica: gli elettori meno coinvolti sono maggiormente capaci di esprimere un voto svincolato dall'orientamento politico. Questo interessante modello alternativo, che spiega risultati altrimenti incomprensibili, viene testato sulla base di dati di sondaggi relativi a venti consultazioni elettorali in Italia, in Francia e negli Stati Uniti nell'arco degli ultimi trent'anni.

-. (2001). Perché ha vinto il centro-destra?

D’ALIMONTE, R. D. R. (2001). Mixed Electoral Rules, Partisan Realignment, and Party System. In S. M.S. & W. M.P. (Eds.), Mixed-Member Electoral Systems. The Best of Both World (pp. 323–350). OXFORD: Oxford University Press.