Next Sunday German voters are called to the polls to elect the new members of the Bundestag. It will be the fourth legislative elections in an important UE country this year, following the Netherlands, France, and the United Kingdom. Unlike in the aforementioned cases, in Germany the electoral outcome appears to be quite certain. According to recent opinion polls, the CDU-CSU (the party led by Chancellor Merkel) should receive roughly 36% of votes, a 5-point decrease compared to the extraordinary result achieved in 2013. The SPD, led by Mr. Schultz, should get a little over 20%. Not enough to challenge Mrs....

Recent electoral events (the Brexit referendum; Trump's victory) have testified a phenomenon that is increasingly relevant in recent elections: the presence of an information gap in the first hours after the end of the scrutiny. As first results start to flow in from specific local areas, uncertainty emerges. This is especially true when results come from areas with a particularly specific political tradition, so that the partial scrutiny is not representative of what might be the final result. This often produces a deep uncertainty, with relevant effects not only on public opinion and politicians' reactions, but also (an perhaps...

A triple victory for Salvini: numerical (he becomes the center of gravity of the government); geographical (its party is now truly national, with a homogenous electoral support), strategic (he now has several options). Tab. 1 – Electoral results in Italy, 2014 and 2019 EP elections, 2018 legislative elections The geography of Salvini's success is in three numbers: compared to its 2018 results, the League multiplies its votes by 1.5 in the North, by 2 in the Center, and by more than 3 in the South and on the Islands. Thus, the current geographical profile of the League appears to be more nationalized,...

Italy was among the countries going to the polls on Sunday, 26 May. The electoral system provides for five constituencies, which however are not relevant for seat allocation among parties, as this is done merely on the basis of votes received nationwide. Furthermore, there is a 4% legal threshold. In addition to the European Parliament (EP) elections, municipal elections were held just under half of 7,915 Italian municipalities – involving roughly a third of Italian voters. Campaign and competitors In June 2018, after the non-decisive results of the general elections held in March 2018, the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the...

Lorenzo De Sio, Mark N. Franklin, Till Weber, The risks and opportunities of Europe: How issue yield explains (non-)reactions to the financial crisis, Electoral Studies, Volume 44, December 2016, Pages 483-491, ISSN 0261-379 Lorenzo De Sio, interviewed by Andrea Maccagno (English translation by Elisabetta Mannoni) This paper analyzes how parties in different European countries employed (or decided not to employ) such a controversial topic as European integration in their electoral strategies. How did this article come about and which was the research question behind it? The paper is the application of a model I have been working at during the last few years. It’s...